Decline rates
How quickly the 62 shrinking countries and areas are changing now, with five-year context and absolute scale kept separate. This is total population change, including migration—not a forecast of where any country ends up.
62 CURRENTLY SHRINKING · PROJECTED ENDPOINT
Current decline pace
Sort any column. The default order shows the fastest projected percentage decline first.
| Saint Martin (French part)Latin America and the Caribbean | -4.92% | -5.25% | -1,286 | 26.1k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook IslandsOceania | -3.47% | -3.28% | -476 | 13.7k |
| Marshall IslandsOceania | -3.38% | -3.22% | -1,268 | 37.5k |
| GreeceEurope | -1.77% | -1.46% | -177,409 | 10.05m |
| Northern Mariana IslandsOceania | -1.76% | -1.64% | -781 | 44.3k |
| TuvaluOceania | -1.69% | -1.85% | -163 | 9.6k |
| American SamoaOceania | -1.61% | -1.44% | -752 | 46.8k |
| Republic of MoldovaEurope | -1.22% | -0.48% | -36,911 | 3.03m |
| CzechiaEurope | -1.04% | 0.23% | -111,390 | 10.74m |
| EstoniaEurope | -0.98% | 0.37% | -13,360 | 1.36m |
| United States Virgin IslandsLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.94% | -0.78% | -796 | 84.9k |
| Saint Pierre and MiquelonNorthern America | -0.92% | -0.87% | -52 | 5.6k |
| PolandEurope | -0.90% | 0.08% | -345,074 | 38.54m |
| LatviaEurope | -0.84% | -0.47% | -15,643 | 1.87m |
| Saint HelenaAfrica | -0.82% | -0.87% | -43 | 5.2k |
| MartiniqueLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.81% | -0.93% | -2,763 | 343.2k |
| MonacoEurope | -0.76% | 0.37% | -292 | 38.6k |
| Wallis and Futuna IslandsOceania | -0.75% | -0.69% | -85 | 11.3k |
| MontserratLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.73% | -0.69% | -32 | 4.4k |
| Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244)Europe | -0.73% | -0.79% | -12,262 | 1.68m |
| CroatiaEurope | -0.72% | -0.56% | -28,020 | 3.88m |
| Bosnia and HerzegovinaEurope | -0.72% | -1.06% | -22,854 | 3.16m |
| ArmeniaAsia | -0.71% | 0.43% | -21,195 | 2.97m |
| AlbaniaEurope | -0.71% | -0.68% | -19,793 | 2.79m |
| Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.70% | -0.69% | -700 | 100.6k |
| SerbiaEurope | -0.66% | -0.66% | -44,236 | 6.74m |
| BelarusEurope | -0.64% | -0.81% | -58,404 | 9.06m |
| BulgariaEurope | -0.61% | -0.63% | -41,067 | 6.76m |
| RomaniaEurope | -0.55% | -0.51% | -105,500 | 19.02m |
| LithuaniaEurope | -0.54% | 0.40% | -15,407 | 2.86m |
| Russian FederationEurope | -0.53% | -0.29% | -770,316 | 144.82m |
| JapanAsia | -0.51% | -0.50% | -636,276 | 123.75m |
| North MacedoniaEurope | -0.49% | -0.73% | -9,006 | 1.82m |
| China, Hong Kong SARAsia | -0.49% | -0.25% | -36,337 | 7.41m |
| SlovakiaEurope | -0.47% | 0.14% | -25,627 | 5.51m |
| DominicaLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.45% | -0.50% | -296 | 66.2k |
| China, Taiwan Province of ChinaAsia | -0.43% | -0.44% | -100,652 | 23.21m |
| TongaOceania | -0.39% | -0.33% | -407 | 104.2k |
| CubaLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.38% | -0.41% | -41,620 | 10.98m |
| GuadeloupeLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.35% | -1.75% | -1,300 | 375.1k |
| GermanyEurope | -0.34% | 0.18% | -286,642 | 84.55m |
| ItalyEurope | -0.31% | -0.27% | -184,548 | 59.34m |
| MontenegroEurope | -0.30% | 0.89% | -1,913 | 638.5k |
| HungaryEurope | -0.28% | -0.22% | -27,175 | 9.68m |
| ChinaAsia | -0.22% | -0.11% | -3,175,283 | 1.42bn |
| MauritiusAfrica | -0.21% | -0.23% | -2,696 | 1.27m |
| GreenlandNorthern America | -0.16% | -0.11% | -87 | 55.8k |
| San MarinoEurope | -0.15% | -0.68% | -52 | 33.6k |
| NepalAsia | -0.15% | 0.64% | -45,791 | 29.65m |
| PalauOceania | -0.13% | -0.12% | -23 | 17.7k |
| Puerto RicoLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.11% | -0.29% | -3,658 | 3.24m |
| BermudaNorthern America | -0.11% | 0.11% | -71 | 64.6k |
| PortugalEurope | -0.10% | 0.11% | -10,717 | 10.43m |
| AustriaEurope | -0.09% | 0.48% | -7,884 | 9.12m |
| Republic of KoreaAsia | -0.08% | -0.05% | -40,992 | 51.72m |
| ThailandAsia | -0.06% | 0.02% | -42,394 | 71.67m |
| UruguayLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.05% | -0.07% | -1,783 | 3.39m |
| SloveniaEurope | -0.05% | 0.26% | -1,055 | 2.12m |
| JamaicaLatin America and the Caribbean | -0.05% | 0.10% | -1,294 | 2.84m |
| Isle of ManEurope | -0.03% | 0.03% | -25 | 84.2k |
| SpainEurope | -0.02% | 0.11% | -10,577 | 47.91m |
| GeorgiaAsia | -0.01% | 0.06% | -338 | 3.81m |
The 2024 pace is projected total population change divided by projected population. The five-year average covers 2020–2024: four observed annual rates through 2023, then the projected 2024 endpoint. A positive five-year average means the current decline began recently.
Fertility / 2.1
Total fertility divided by the 2.1 replacement reference. It isolates one mechanism and does not include mortality, timing, or migration.
| Country | Fertility | Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| China, Macao SAR | 0.68 | 32.2% |
| China, Hong Kong SAR | 0.73 | 34.6% |
| Republic of Korea | 0.73 | 35.0% |
| Saint Barthélemy | 0.81 | 38.8% |
| China, Taiwan Province of China | 0.86 | 41.1% |
| Puerto Rico | 0.94 | 44.7% |
| Singapore | 0.95 | 45.3% |
| Ukraine | 0.99 | 47.0% |
| Holy See | 1.00 | 47.6% |
| China | 1.01 | 48.2% |
| British Virgin Islands | 1.05 | 49.9% |
| Curaçao | 1.07 | 51.0% |
| Andorra | 1.09 | 51.8% |
| Malta | 1.11 | 52.7% |
| Chile | 1.14 | 54.3% |
| San Marino | 1.16 | 55.1% |
| Thailand | 1.20 | 57.3% |
| Italy | 1.21 | 57.4% |
| Lithuania | 1.21 | 57.7% |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.21 | 57.8% |
| Belarus | 1.22 | 58.0% |
| Japan | 1.22 | 58.0% |
| Spain | 1.22 | 58.1% |
| Mauritius | 1.23 | 58.3% |
| Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 1.27 | 60.6% |
| Finland | 1.29 | 61.5% |
| Poland | 1.30 | 62.1% |
| Costa Rica | 1.32 | 62.8% |
| Austria | 1.32 | 62.9% |
| Greece | 1.34 | 63.6% |
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulawpp-direct-v1 · decline-pace-acceleration-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/decline-pace.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universe62 of 237 WPP countries and areas whose 2024 total population change is strictly negative.
Reference time2024 projected endpoint; five-year context covers 2020–2024.
UnitPercentage of same-year population; people per year; people.
Evidence status2020–2023 observed estimates; 2024 projected medium-variant endpoint.