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Population state · Sustained decline

Bulgaria

Europe · Eastern Europe · BGR · BG

Bulgaria's population reached its series maximum in 1988. The current run began in 1989.

Population state
Sustained decline
current run since 1989 · projected 2024
Fertility
1.75
105 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
World population rank
110
of 237
Regional population rank
20
of 50 in Europe
Annual change
−41,067
16th-largest annual loss in the record
Peak population · 1988 Deaths exceed births · since 1990 Working-age peak · 1985 Support ratio · 2.88 people 15–64 per person 65+
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED

What drives population change?

Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.

Migration contribution Reduces decline

Positive net migration slows natural decline without reversing it.

Bulgaria, 2024 projected: natural change −41,590 people, net migration +524, WPP adjustment −1, total population change −41,067. Positive net migration slows natural decline without reversing it.

Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a −1-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.

SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
SUSTAINED DECLINE · STATE-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE

Decline over time

36 source years · since 1989 Tied rank 1 of 29 by streak duration Duration, not severity
CARD 01 · ANNUAL TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE

Annual change through the streak

Each bar is one year’s total population change. View the same evidence as a share of that year’s population or as a count of people.

Births, deaths, net migration, and WPP adjustments are included.
−0.61%
1989–2024 · 36 source years Loss rate has eased since the start
Annual change bar chart
Observed through 2023 2024 projected

One discrete bar for each source year from 1989 through 2024. The chart includes total population change from births, deaths, net migration, and WPP adjustments; observed and projected rows are distinguished.

Annual total population change for Bulgaria, 1989 to 2024
YearEvidencePercent of populationPeople
1989observed−1.21%−108.5k
1990observed−1.35%−119.5k
1991observed−1.54%−133.6k
1992observed−1.63%−139.8k
1993observed−0.54%−45.3k
1994observed−0.64%−53.9k
1995observed−0.78%−64.8k
1996observed−0.81%−67.6k
1997observed−0.99%−81.0k
1998observed−0.94%−76.8k
1999observed−0.80%−64.7k
2000observed−0.86%−69.2k
2001observed−0.95%−74.9k
2002observed−0.74%−58.1k
2003observed−0.73%−57.0k
2004observed−0.68%−53.0k
2005observed−0.72%−55.8k
2006observed−0.70%−53.7k
2007observed−0.70%−53.1k
2008observed−0.66%−49.5k
2009observed−0.61%−45.6k
2010observed−0.74%−55.2k
2011observed−0.81%−60.0k
2012observed−0.90%−66.1k
2013observed−0.53%−38.8k
2014observed−0.60%−43.5k
2015observed−0.67%−48.3k
2016observed−0.73%−51.8k
2017observed−0.73%−51.8k
2018observed−0.71%−50.0k
2019observed−0.70%−48.5k
2020observed−0.51%−35.1k
2021observed−1.13%−77.8k
2022observed−0.37%−25.0k
2023observed−0.52%−35.2k
2024projected−0.61%−41.1k
First year−1.21%
Least negative−0.37% · 2022
Most negative−1.63% · 1992
2024−0.61%
CARD 02 · LITERAL SERIES MAXIMUM

Population below peak

Peak population minus the 2024 population, shown in people and as a share of the peak.

24.8%
2.23m people below peak
Population from peak line chart
Observed through 2023 2024 projected Focused scale · peak = 100

Annual total population from the literal series maximum in 1988 through 2024, indexed so the peak equals 100. The focused scale shows the stock path while exact annual populations remain in the table.

Annual total population from the literal peak through 2024
YearEvidencePopulation
1988observed8,985,715
1989observed8,936,380
1990observed8,822,365
1991observed8,695,797
1992observed8,559,101
1993observed8,466,533
1994observed8,416,917
1995observed8,357,574
1996observed8,291,398
1997observed8,217,102
1998observed8,138,194
1999observed8,067,462
2000observed8,000,520
2001observed7,928,452
2002observed7,861,943
2003observed7,804,409
2004observed7,749,430
2005observed7,695,050
2006observed7,640,294
2007observed7,586,888
2008observed7,535,592
2009observed7,488,011
2010observed7,437,599
2011observed7,380,025
2012observed7,317,014
2013observed7,264,600
2014observed7,223,449
2015observed7,177,517
2016observed7,127,434
2017observed7,075,636
2018observed7,024,745
2019observed6,975,469
2020observed6,933,652
2021observed6,877,225
2022observed6,825,864
2023observed6,795,803
2024projected6,757,689
Peak population · 1988
8.99m
2024 population
6.76m

From 8,985,715 people in 1988 to 6,757,689 in 2024. The endpoint is projected; the peak year is the literal maximum in the WPP series.

SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaannual-total-change-rate-v1 · population-below-peak-v1 · population-from-peak-v1 · sustained-decline-streak-rank-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/sustained-decline-profile.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship; streak rank compares the 29 canonical sustained-decline members only.
Reference timeAnnual source rows from 1989 through 2024; estimates through 2023, then medium-variant projection.
UnitWhole people and annual total change as a percentage of same-year population; the population-path chart indexes the literal peak to 100 while retaining exact annual counts.
Evidence statusprojected 2024 endpoint; observed/projected status is retained for every chart row.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
YearPopulationAnnual changeFertility
20246.76m−41,0671.75
20505.40m−48,3091.70
20804.08m−34,0671.69
21003.53m−25,8711.68

Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.

AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100

Youth and older population

Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.

First annual crossover
2006 · observed
Rule
65+ strictly exceeds under 18

Bulgaria annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 32.7% in 1950 to 17.5% in 2023 and 15.8% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 6.3% to 21.8% and 32.3%. First annual crossover: 2006 · observed. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.

Youth and older population in Bulgaria, 1950 to 2100 Bulgaria annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 32.7% in 1950 to 17.5% in 2023 and 15.8% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 6.3% to 21.8% and 32.3%. First annual crossover: 2006 · observed. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1950 1975 2000 2023 2050 2075 2100 ESTIMATES · THROUGH 2023 WPP MEDIUM PROJECTION UNDER 18 · 15.8% 65+ · 32.3%
1950
Under 18 · 32.7%65+ · 6.3%
2023 observed
Under 18 · 17.5%65+ · 21.8%
2100 projected
Under 18 · 15.8%65+ · 32.3%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
Bulgaria under-18 and 65+ population history
YearEvidenceUnder 18Share65+Share
1950 observed 2,369,709 32.7% 458,466 6.3%
1951 observed 2,364,340 32.3% 482,265 6.6%
1952 observed 2,347,468 31.9% 494,495 6.7%
1953 observed 2,341,255 31.6% 504,868 6.8%
1954 observed 2,344,305 31.4% 519,525 6.9%
1955 observed 2,349,502 31.2% 531,753 7.1%
1956 observed 2,358,941 31.1% 541,934 7.1%
1957 observed 2,372,665 31.0% 550,519 7.2%
1958 observed 2,387,164 30.9% 561,541 7.3%
1959 observed 2,398,514 30.8% 572,246 7.3%
1960 observed 2,410,497 30.7% 585,880 7.5%
1961 observed 2,423,751 30.5% 606,773 7.6%
1962 observed 2,433,911 30.4% 625,692 7.8%
1963 observed 2,436,728 30.2% 641,801 7.9%
1964 observed 2,427,295 29.8% 659,664 8.1%
1965 observed 2,410,872 29.4% 685,672 8.4%
1966 observed 2,392,313 29.0% 714,764 8.7%
1967 observed 2,369,276 28.5% 737,055 8.9%
1968 observed 2,350,429 28.1% 761,852 9.1%
1969 observed 2,345,920 27.8% 788,102 9.3%
1970 observed 2,344,952 27.6% 815,400 9.6%
1971 observed 2,336,980 27.4% 844,763 9.9%
1972 observed 2,326,784 27.1% 872,006 10.2%
1973 observed 2,319,336 26.9% 897,928 10.4%
1974 observed 2,321,528 26.7% 923,718 10.6%
1975 observed 2,323,727 26.6% 948,850 10.9%
1976 observed 2,328,661 26.6% 972,991 11.1%
1977 observed 2,340,151 26.6% 998,440 11.3%
1978 observed 2,336,001 26.5% 1,008,735 11.4%
1979 observed 2,329,007 26.4% 1,022,008 11.6%
1980 observed 2,329,874 26.3% 1,049,314 11.8%
1981 observed 2,327,375 26.2% 1,050,378 11.8%
1982 observed 2,325,655 26.1% 1,024,991 11.5%
1983 observed 2,325,070 26.0% 999,203 11.2%
1984 observed 2,326,373 26.0% 995,896 11.1%
1985 observed 2,322,483 25.9% 1,017,970 11.4%
1986 observed 2,312,251 25.8% 1,048,681 11.7%
1987 observed 2,297,684 25.6% 1,079,063 12.0%
1988 observed 2,280,352 25.4% 1,107,173 12.3%
1989 observed 2,243,569 25.1% 1,134,959 12.7%
1990 observed 2,185,254 24.8% 1,162,242 13.2%
1991 observed 2,120,887 24.4% 1,185,721 13.6%
1992 observed 2,042,726 23.9% 1,204,932 14.1%
1993 observed 1,972,954 23.3% 1,224,985 14.5%
1994 observed 1,916,952 22.8% 1,245,203 14.8%
1995 observed 1,857,252 22.2% 1,262,551 15.1%
1996 observed 1,798,124 21.7% 1,276,105 15.4%
1997 observed 1,737,540 21.1% 1,287,155 15.7%
1998 observed 1,677,174 20.6% 1,299,789 16.0%
1999 observed 1,624,594 20.1% 1,315,123 16.3%
2000 observed 1,576,910 19.7% 1,326,750 16.6%
2001 observed 1,526,760 19.3% 1,332,130 16.8%
2002 observed 1,477,021 18.8% 1,336,083 17.0%
2003 observed 1,432,893 18.4% 1,336,143 17.1%
2004 observed 1,391,413 18.0% 1,334,916 17.2%
2005 observed 1,353,180 17.6% 1,334,103 17.3%
2006 observed 1,318,375 17.3% 1,333,249 17.5%
2007 observed 1,286,146 17.0% 1,333,217 17.6%
2008 observed 1,258,592 16.7% 1,335,901 17.7%
2009 observed 1,238,608 16.5% 1,341,065 17.9%
2010 observed 1,222,676 16.4% 1,349,717 18.1%
2011 observed 1,205,305 16.3% 1,366,710 18.5%
2012 observed 1,187,080 16.2% 1,386,523 18.9%
2013 observed 1,178,362 16.2% 1,406,043 19.4%
2014 observed 1,180,454 16.3% 1,428,495 19.8%
2015 observed 1,186,051 16.5% 1,450,562 20.2%
2016 observed 1,192,181 16.7% 1,466,544 20.6%
2017 observed 1,193,604 16.9% 1,476,680 20.9%
2018 observed 1,191,250 17.0% 1,487,204 21.2%
2019 observed 1,189,718 17.1% 1,498,296 21.5%
2020 observed 1,190,129 17.2% 1,503,684 21.7%
2021 observed 1,189,688 17.3% 1,492,578 21.7%
2022 observed 1,190,598 17.4% 1,481,029 21.7%
2023 observed 1,191,140 17.5% 1,483,688 21.8%
2024 projected 1,186,792 17.6% 1,488,742 22.0%
2025 projected 1,179,192 17.6% 1,493,025 22.2%
2026 projected 1,168,263 17.5% 1,497,704 22.5%
2027 projected 1,153,307 17.4% 1,500,692 22.7%
2028 projected 1,137,503 17.3% 1,501,578 22.9%
2029 projected 1,122,672 17.2% 1,501,383 23.1%
2030 projected 1,107,710 17.2% 1,499,146 23.2%
2031 projected 1,093,703 17.1% 1,494,497 23.3%
2032 projected 1,079,192 17.0% 1,489,602 23.5%
2033 projected 1,063,876 16.9% 1,490,630 23.7%
2034 projected 1,049,255 16.8% 1,497,979 24.0%
2035 projected 1,035,199 16.7% 1,505,153 24.3%
2036 projected 1,022,329 16.7% 1,509,912 24.6%
2037 projected 1,010,697 16.6% 1,512,369 24.9%
2038 projected 1,000,822 16.6% 1,516,762 25.2%
2039 projected 992,541 16.6% 1,527,193 25.6%
2040 projected 981,957 16.6% 1,539,323 26.1%
2041 projected 969,659 16.6% 1,550,152 26.5%
2042 projected 958,978 16.5% 1,560,274 26.9%
2043 projected 949,518 16.5% 1,568,181 27.3%
2044 projected 940,997 16.5% 1,574,888 27.6%
2045 projected 933,258 16.5% 1,579,608 28.0%
2046 projected 926,090 16.5% 1,581,813 28.3%
2047 projected 919,269 16.6% 1,583,344 28.5%
2048 projected 912,798 16.6% 1,584,925 28.8%
2049 projected 906,605 16.6% 1,587,200 29.1%
2050 projected 900,471 16.7% 1,589,466 29.4%
2051 projected 894,315 16.7% 1,592,636 29.7%
2052 projected 888,057 16.7% 1,596,264 30.1%
2053 projected 881,514 16.8% 1,600,225 30.4%
2054 projected 874,645 16.8% 1,604,385 30.8%
2055 projected 867,483 16.8% 1,605,947 31.1%
2056 projected 860,046 16.8% 1,602,850 31.3%
2057 projected 852,286 16.8% 1,594,127 31.5%
2058 projected 844,210 16.8% 1,581,087 31.5%
2059 projected 835,718 16.8% 1,564,510 31.5%
2060 projected 826,740 16.8% 1,543,242 31.3%
2061 projected 817,457 16.8% 1,519,385 31.1%
2062 projected 808,034 16.7% 1,493,051 30.9%
2063 projected 798,555 16.7% 1,465,336 30.6%
2064 projected 789,104 16.7% 1,442,260 30.5%
2065 projected 779,755 16.6% 1,422,571 30.3%
2066 projected 770,578 16.6% 1,401,385 30.2%
2067 projected 761,655 16.6% 1,378,866 30.0%
2068 projected 753,062 16.5% 1,357,071 29.8%
2069 projected 744,774 16.5% 1,337,001 29.7%
2070 projected 736,713 16.5% 1,318,627 29.5%
2071 projected 728,972 16.5% 1,301,943 29.5%
2072 projected 721,599 16.5% 1,287,199 29.4%
2073 projected 714,540 16.5% 1,274,810 29.4%
2074 projected 707,724 16.5% 1,265,736 29.5%
2075 projected 701,260 16.5% 1,257,436 29.5%
2076 projected 695,162 16.5% 1,248,509 29.6%
2077 projected 689,293 16.5% 1,240,065 29.6%
2078 projected 683,656 16.5% 1,231,384 29.7%
2079 projected 678,153 16.5% 1,224,057 29.8%
2080 projected 672,737 16.5% 1,218,303 29.9%
2081 projected 667,519 16.5% 1,212,830 30.0%
2082 projected 662,403 16.5% 1,207,924 30.1%
2083 projected 657,273 16.5% 1,202,877 30.2%
2084 projected 652,107 16.5% 1,197,662 30.3%
2085 projected 646,824 16.5% 1,192,030 30.4%
2086 projected 641,463 16.5% 1,185,948 30.5%
2087 projected 636,030 16.5% 1,182,890 30.6%
2088 projected 630,539 16.4% 1,182,321 30.8%
2089 projected 624,941 16.4% 1,181,141 31.0%
2090 projected 619,219 16.4% 1,179,530 31.2%
2091 projected 613,368 16.3% 1,177,521 31.3%
2092 projected 607,348 16.3% 1,175,085 31.5%
2093 projected 601,227 16.2% 1,172,194 31.6%
2094 projected 595,053 16.2% 1,168,839 31.7%
2095 projected 588,893 16.1% 1,165,010 31.8%
2096 projected 582,711 16.0% 1,160,732 31.9%
2097 projected 576,507 16.0% 1,156,109 32.0%
2098 projected 570,431 15.9% 1,151,255 32.1%
2099 projected 564,488 15.9% 1,146,229 32.2%
2100 projected 558,623 15.8% 1,141,116 32.3%
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.