The Register · 2024
The Replacement Line
131 countries or areas sit below 2.1 live births per woman in the WPP medium-variant display year.
Source wpp2024 · formula tfr-minus-replacement-v1
| Place | TFR | Distance from 2.1 | Population | Annual change | Stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China, Macao SAR | 0.68 | -1.42 | 720.3k | 2,790 | Early Warning |
| China, Hong Kong SAR | 0.73 | -1.37 | 7.41m | -36,337 | Shrinkage |
| Republic of Korea | 0.73 | -1.37 | 51.72m | -40,992 | Shrinkage |
| Saint Barthélemy | 0.81 | -1.28 | 11.3k | 161 | Crossover |
| China, Taiwan Province of China | 0.86 | -1.24 | 23.21m | -100,652 | Shrinkage |
| Puerto Rico | 0.94 | -1.16 | 3.24m | -3,658 | Shrinkage |
| Singapore | 0.95 | -1.15 | 5.83m | 39,852 | The Turn |
| Ukraine | 0.99 | -1.11 | 37.86m | 837,923 | Crossover |
| Holy See | 1.00 | -1.10 | 496 | 9 | Crossover |
| China | 1.01 | -1.09 | 1.42bn | -3,175,283 | Shrinkage |
| British Virgin Islands | 1.05 | -1.05 | 39.5k | 288 | Early Warning |
| Curaçao | 1.07 | -1.03 | 185.5k | 43 | Crossover |
| Andorra | 1.09 | -1.01 | 81.9k | 1,039 | The Turn |
| Malta | 1.11 | -0.99 | 539.6k | 6,426 | Early Warning |
| Chile | 1.14 | -0.96 | 19.76m | 100,681 | Early Warning |
| San Marino | 1.16 | -0.94 | 33.6k | -52 | Shrinkage |
| Thailand | 1.20 | -0.90 | 71.67m | -42,394 | Shrinkage |
| Italy | 1.21 | -0.89 | 59.34m | -184,548 | Shrinkage |
| Lithuania | 1.21 | -0.89 | 2.86m | -15,407 | Shrinkage |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.21 | -0.89 | 11.03m | 375,996 | Early Warning |
| Belarus | 1.22 | -0.88 | 9.06m | -58,404 | Shrinkage |
| Japan | 1.22 | -0.88 | 123.75m | -636,276 | Shrinkage |
| Spain | 1.22 | -0.88 | 47.91m | -10,577 | Shrinkage |
| Mauritius | 1.23 | -0.88 | 1.27m | -2,696 | Shrinkage |
| Saint Pierre and Miquelon | 1.27 | -0.83 | 5.6k | -52 | Shrinkage |
| Finland | 1.29 | -0.81 | 5.62m | 10,533 | Crossover |
| Poland | 1.30 | -0.80 | 38.54m | -345,074 | Shrinkage |
| Costa Rica | 1.32 | -0.78 | 5.13m | 23,670 | Early Warning |
| Austria | 1.32 | -0.78 | 9.12m | -7,884 | Shrinkage |
| Greece | 1.34 | -0.76 | 10.05m | -177,409 | Shrinkage |
| Albania | 1.34 | -0.76 | 2.79m | -19,793 | Shrinkage |
| Latvia | 1.34 | -0.76 | 1.87m | -15,643 | Shrinkage |
| Canada | 1.34 | -0.76 | 39.74m | 407,892 | Early Warning |
| Jamaica | 1.35 | -0.75 | 2.84m | -1,294 | Shrinkage |
| Anguilla | 1.36 | -0.74 | 14.6k | 151 | The Turn |
| Estonia | 1.36 | -0.74 | 1.36m | -13,360 | Shrinkage |
| Guernsey | 1.37 | -0.73 | 64.3k | 222 | Crossover |
| Bahamas | 1.37 | -0.73 | 401.3k | 1,834 | Early Warning |
| Jersey | 1.37 | -0.73 | 103.8k | 159 | Crossover |
| Cyprus | 1.38 | -0.72 | 1.36m | 12,890 | Early Warning |
| Belgium | 1.38 | -0.72 | 11.74m | 22,163 | Crossover |
| Saint Lucia | 1.39 | -0.71 | 179.7k | 441 | Early Warning |
| Uruguay | 1.40 | -0.70 | 3.39m | -1,783 | Shrinkage |
| Luxembourg | 1.40 | -0.70 | 673.0k | 7,664 | Early Warning |
| Bermuda | 1.41 | -0.69 | 64.6k | -71 | Shrinkage |
| Wallis and Futuna Islands | 1.41 | -0.69 | 11.3k | -85 | Shrinkage |
| Norway | 1.41 | -0.69 | 5.58m | 53,762 | Early Warning |
| Netherlands | 1.43 | -0.67 | 18.23m | 126,375 | Early Warning |
| Sweden | 1.43 | -0.67 | 10.61m | 51,842 | Early Warning |
| Switzerland | 1.44 | -0.66 | 8.92m | 47,824 | Early Warning |
| Sint Maarten (Dutch part) | 1.44 | -0.66 | 43.4k | 589 | Early Warning |
| Cuba | 1.45 | -0.66 | 10.98m | -41,620 | Shrinkage |
| Montserrat | 1.45 | -0.65 | 4.4k | -32 | Shrinkage |
| Germany | 1.45 | -0.65 | 84.55m | -286,642 | Shrinkage |
| Bhutan | 1.45 | -0.65 | 791.5k | 4,837 | Early Warning |
| Turks and Caicos Islands | 1.45 | -0.65 | 46.5k | 329 | Early Warning |
| Czechia | 1.46 | -0.64 | 10.74m | -111,390 | Shrinkage |
| Russian Federation | 1.46 | -0.64 | 144.82m | -770,316 | Shrinkage |
| Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba | 1.46 | -0.64 | 30.7k | 703 | Early Warning |
| North Macedonia | 1.47 | -0.63 | 1.82m | -9,006 | Shrinkage |
| Grenada | 1.47 | -0.63 | 117.2k | 105 | Early Warning |
| Croatia | 1.47 | -0.63 | 3.88m | -28,020 | Shrinkage |
| Dominica | 1.48 | -0.62 | 66.2k | -296 | Shrinkage |
| Hungary | 1.49 | -0.61 | 9.68m | -27,175 | Shrinkage |
| French Polynesia | 1.49 | -0.61 | 281.8k | 681 | Early Warning |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1.49 | -0.61 | 3.16m | -22,854 | Shrinkage |
| Serbia | 1.50 | -0.60 | 6.74m | -44,236 | Shrinkage |
| Argentina | 1.50 | -0.60 | 45.70m | 156,762 | Early Warning |
| Cabo Verde | 1.51 | -0.59 | 524.9k | 2,526 | Early Warning |
| Portugal | 1.51 | -0.59 | 10.43m | -10,717 | Shrinkage |
| Kuwait | 1.51 | -0.58 | 4.93m | 100,729 | Early Warning |
| Denmark | 1.52 | -0.58 | 5.98m | 27,018 | Early Warning |
| Iceland | 1.52 | -0.58 | 393.4k | 5,311 | Early Warning |
| Cayman Islands | 1.52 | -0.57 | 74.5k | 1,403 | Early Warning |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | 1.53 | -0.57 | 46.8k | 80 | The Turn |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 1.54 | -0.56 | 1.51m | 4,053 | The Turn |
| Liechtenstein | 1.54 | -0.56 | 39.9k | 268 | The Turn |
| Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) | 1.54 | -0.56 | 1.68m | -12,262 | Shrinkage |
| Malaysia | 1.54 | -0.56 | 35.56m | 426,863 | Early Warning |
| Isle of Man | 1.54 | -0.56 | 84.2k | -25 | Shrinkage |
| United Kingdom | 1.55 | -0.55 | 69.14m | 430,297 | Early Warning |
| Maldives | 1.56 | -0.54 | 527.8k | 1,910 | Early Warning |
| Slovakia | 1.56 | -0.54 | 5.51m | -25,627 | Shrinkage |
| Slovenia | 1.58 | -0.52 | 2.12m | -1,055 | Shrinkage |
| Antigua and Barbuda | 1.58 | -0.52 | 93.8k | 445 | Early Warning |
| Ireland | 1.60 | -0.50 | 5.26m | 55,185 | Early Warning |
| Aruba | 1.61 | -0.49 | 108.1k | 113 | Crossover |
| Brazil | 1.61 | -0.49 | 212.00m | 848,231 | Early Warning |
| Türkiye | 1.62 | -0.48 | 87.47m | 204,260 | Early Warning |
| United States of America | 1.62 | -0.48 | 345.43m | 1,893,998 | Early Warning |
| Colombia | 1.63 | -0.47 | 52.89m | 553,325 | Early Warning |
| France | 1.64 | -0.46 | 66.55m | 104,743 | The Turn |
| Australia | 1.64 | -0.46 | 26.71m | 263,518 | Early Warning |
| Saint Helena | 1.64 | -0.46 | 5.2k | -43 | Shrinkage |
| New Zealand | 1.66 | -0.44 | 5.21m | 39,258 | Early Warning |
| Azerbaijan | 1.67 | -0.43 | 10.34m | 63,577 | Early Warning |
| Iran (Islamic Republic of) | 1.68 | -0.42 | 91.57m | 905,921 | Early Warning |
| Falkland Islands (Malvinas) | 1.69 | -0.41 | 3.5k | 1 | The Turn |
| Barbados | 1.71 | -0.39 | 282.5k | 183 | The Turn |
| Romania | 1.71 | -0.39 | 19.02m | -105,500 | Shrinkage |
| Armenia | 1.72 | -0.38 | 2.97m | -21,195 | Shrinkage |
| Qatar | 1.72 | -0.38 | 3.05m | 71,942 | Early Warning |
| Republic of Moldova | 1.73 | -0.37 | 3.03m | -36,911 | Shrinkage |
| Brunei Darussalam | 1.73 | -0.37 | 462.7k | 3,705 | Early Warning |
| Bulgaria | 1.75 | -0.35 | 6.76m | -41,067 | Shrinkage |
| Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 1.76 | -0.34 | 100.6k | -700 | Shrinkage |
| El Salvador | 1.77 | -0.33 | 6.34m | 28,416 | Early Warning |
| Dem. People's Republic of Korea | 1.78 | -0.32 | 26.50m | 77,018 | The Turn |
| Montenegro | 1.80 | -0.30 | 638.5k | -1,913 | Shrinkage |
| Georgia | 1.80 | -0.30 | 3.81m | -338 | Shrinkage |
| Bahrain | 1.80 | -0.29 | 1.61m | 38,489 | Early Warning |
| Ecuador | 1.81 | -0.29 | 18.14m | 154,641 | Early Warning |
| Tunisia | 1.82 | -0.28 | 12.28m | 73,698 | Early Warning |
| Palau | 1.88 | -0.22 | 17.7k | -23 | Shrinkage |
| Gibraltar | 1.89 | -0.21 | 39.3k | 820 | Early Warning |
| Mexico | 1.89 | -0.21 | 130.86m | 1,105,216 | Early Warning |
| Philippines | 1.89 | -0.21 | 115.84m | 945,245 | Early Warning |
| Viet Nam | 1.90 | -0.20 | 100.99m | 624,789 | Early Warning |
| Greenland | 1.93 | -0.17 | 55.8k | -87 | Shrinkage |
| Sri Lanka | 1.95 | -0.15 | 23.10m | 130,255 | Early Warning |
| Nepal | 1.96 | -0.14 | 29.65m | -45,791 | Shrinkage |
| India | 1.96 | -0.14 | 1.45bn | 12,999,094 | Early Warning |
| New Caledonia | 1.96 | -0.14 | 292.6k | 2,741 | Early Warning |
| Peru | 1.97 | -0.14 | 34.22m | 365,915 | Early Warning |
| Martinique | 1.99 | -0.11 | 343.2k | -2,763 | Shrinkage |
| Belize | 2.02 | -0.08 | 417.1k | 5,949 | Early Warning |
| Cook Islands | 2.02 | -0.08 | 13.7k | -476 | Shrinkage |
| Guadeloupe | 2.07 | -0.03 | 375.1k | -1,300 | Shrinkage |
| Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) | 2.08 | -0.02 | 28.41m | 109,236 | The Turn |
| United States Virgin Islands | 2.08 | -0.02 | 84.9k | -796 | Shrinkage |
| Myanmar | 2.10 | -0.00 | 54.50m | 359,220 | Early Warning |
| Monaco | 2.10 | 0.00 | 38.6k | -292 | Shrinkage |
| Panama | 2.11 | 0.01 | 4.52m | 56,178 | The Slowing |
| Seychelles | 2.11 | 0.01 | 130.4k | 2,423 | The Slowing |
| Indonesia | 2.12 | 0.01 | 283.49m | 2,268,573 | The Slowing |
| Bangladesh | 2.14 | 0.04 | 173.56m | 2,109,792 | The Slowing |
| Réunion | 2.15 | 0.05 | 878.6k | 3,831 | The Turn |
| Western Sahara | 2.18 | 0.08 | 590.5k | 10,646 | The Slowing |
| South Africa | 2.21 | 0.10 | 64.01m | 758,605 | The Slowing |
| Nicaragua | 2.21 | 0.11 | 6.92m | 92,139 | The Slowing |
| Morocco | 2.21 | 0.11 | 38.08m | 359,778 | The Slowing |
| Dominican Republic | 2.22 | 0.12 | 11.43m | 95,138 | The Slowing |
| Faroe Islands | 2.22 | 0.12 | 55.4k | 645 | The Slowing |
| Lebanon | 2.23 | 0.13 | 5.81m | 40,341 | The Turn |
| Suriname | 2.23 | 0.13 | 634.4k | 5,374 | The Slowing |
| American Samoa | 2.27 | 0.17 | 46.8k | -752 | Shrinkage |
| Fiji | 2.27 | 0.17 | 928.8k | 4,480 | The Slowing |
| Guatemala | 2.29 | 0.19 | 18.41m | 282,334 | The Slowing |
| Libya | 2.30 | 0.20 | 7.38m | 76,966 | The Slowing |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.31 | 0.21 | 33.96m | 603,031 | The Slowing |
| Northern Mariana Islands | 2.32 | 0.22 | 44.3k | -781 | Shrinkage |
| Guyana | 2.40 | 0.29 | 831.1k | 4,909 | The Slowing |
| Lao People's Democratic Republic | 2.40 | 0.30 | 7.77m | 104,290 | The Slowing |
| Paraguay | 2.42 | 0.32 | 6.93m | 84,774 | The Slowing |
| Honduras | 2.48 | 0.38 | 10.83m | 180,623 | The Slowing |
| Niue | 2.49 | 0.39 | 1.8k | 7 | Crossover |
| Oman | 2.51 | 0.41 | 5.28m | 232,788 | The Slowing |
| Bolivia (Plurinational State of) | 2.52 | 0.42 | 12.41m | 168,982 | The Slowing |
| Cambodia | 2.55 | 0.45 | 17.64m | 211,435 | The Slowing |
| Tokelau | 2.60 | 0.50 | 2.5k | 107 | The Slowing |
| Jordan | 2.60 | 0.50 | 11.55m | 43,866 | The Slowing |
| Djibouti | 2.62 | 0.52 | 1.17m | 15,700 | The Slowing |
| Haiti | 2.63 | 0.53 | 11.77m | 134,724 | The Slowing |
| Timor-Leste | 2.63 | 0.53 | 1.40m | 17,826 | The Slowing |
| Mongolia | 2.63 | 0.53 | 3.48m | 42,540 | The Slowing |
| Turkmenistan | 2.66 | 0.56 | 7.49m | 127,591 | The Slowing |
| Lesotho | 2.66 | 0.56 | 2.34m | 25,949 | The Slowing |
| Saint Martin (French part) | 2.67 | 0.57 | 26.1k | -1,286 | Shrinkage |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 2.70 | 0.60 | 24.67m | 996,263 | The Slowing |
| Botswana | 2.70 | 0.60 | 2.52m | 41,174 | The Slowing |
| Eswatini | 2.72 | 0.62 | 1.24m | 13,031 | The Slowing |
| Algeria | 2.72 | 0.62 | 46.81m | 634,425 | The Slowing |
| Egypt | 2.73 | 0.64 | 116.54m | 1,919,697 | The Slowing |
| Micronesia (Fed. States of) | 2.74 | 0.64 | 113.2k | 535 | The Slowing |
| Guam | 2.75 | 0.65 | 167.8k | 1,244 | The Turn |
| Kyrgyzstan | 2.78 | 0.68 | 7.19m | 110,830 | The Slowing |
| Israel | 2.79 | 0.69 | 9.39m | 130,408 | The Slowing |
| Marshall Islands | 2.86 | 0.76 | 37.5k | -1,268 | Shrinkage |
| Kazakhstan | 2.98 | 0.88 | 20.59m | 256,726 | The Slowing |
| Tajikistan | 3.04 | 0.94 | 10.59m | 198,443 | The Slowing |
| Papua New Guinea | 3.07 | 0.97 | 10.58m | 186,881 | The Slowing |
| Tonga | 3.10 | 1.00 | 104.2k | -407 | Shrinkage |
| Kiribati | 3.12 | 1.02 | 134.5k | 1,982 | The Slowing |
| Kenya | 3.17 | 1.07 | 56.43m | 1,096,901 | The Slowing |
| Tuvalu | 3.17 | 1.07 | 9.6k | -163 | Shrinkage |
| Namibia | 3.21 | 1.11 | 3.03m | 63,956 | The Slowing |
| Iraq | 3.22 | 1.12 | 46.04m | 968,224 | The Slowing |
| State of Palestine | 3.25 | 1.15 | 5.50m | 90,034 | The Slowing |
| Nauru | 3.29 | 1.19 | 11.9k | 83 | The Slowing |
| French Guiana | 3.34 | 1.24 | 308.5k | 5,123 | The Slowing |
| Ghana | 3.34 | 1.24 | 34.43m | 637,913 | The Slowing |
| Uzbekistan | 3.49 | 1.39 | 36.36m | 702,810 | The Slowing |
| Solomon Islands | 3.51 | 1.41 | 819.2k | 19,318 | The Slowing |
| Pakistan | 3.55 | 1.45 | 251.27m | 3,867,148 | The Slowing |
| Vanuatu | 3.57 | 1.47 | 327.8k | 7,385 | The Slowing |
| Malawi | 3.59 | 1.49 | 21.66m | 558,308 | The Slowing |
| Gabon | 3.59 | 1.49 | 2.54m | 54,179 | The Slowing |
| Sao Tome and Principe | 3.60 | 1.50 | 235.5k | 4,703 | The Slowing |
| Rwanda | 3.65 | 1.54 | 14.26m | 300,439 | The Slowing |
| Zimbabwe | 3.67 | 1.57 | 16.63m | 311,977 | The Slowing |
| Eritrea | 3.68 | 1.58 | 3.54m | 67,646 | The Slowing |
| Sierra Leone | 3.70 | 1.60 | 8.64m | 178,235 | The Slowing |
| Guinea-Bissau | 3.76 | 1.66 | 2.20m | 47,928 | The Slowing |
| Senegal | 3.77 | 1.67 | 18.50m | 427,821 | The Slowing |
| South Sudan | 3.79 | 1.69 | 11.94m | 247,111 | The Slowing |
| Samoa | 3.80 | 1.70 | 218.0k | 1,355 | The Slowing |
| Comoros | 3.82 | 1.72 | 866.6k | 16,242 | The Slowing |
| Liberia | 3.86 | 1.76 | 5.61m | 118,850 | The Slowing |
| Gambia | 3.91 | 1.81 | 2.76m | 62,165 | The Slowing |
| Ethiopia | 3.91 | 1.81 | 132.06m | 3,409,487 | The Slowing |
| Madagascar | 3.91 | 1.81 | 31.96m | 773,132 | The Slowing |
| Zambia | 4.04 | 1.94 | 21.31m | 594,815 | The Slowing |
| Congo | 4.11 | 2.01 | 6.33m | 150,666 | The Slowing |
| Burkina Faso | 4.11 | 2.01 | 23.55m | 525,730 | The Slowing |
| Equatorial Guinea | 4.12 | 2.02 | 1.89m | 45,797 | The Slowing |
| Togo | 4.12 | 2.02 | 9.52m | 205,687 | The Slowing |
| Guinea | 4.13 | 2.03 | 14.75m | 346,489 | The Slowing |
| Uganda | 4.17 | 2.06 | 50.02m | 1,365,999 | The Slowing |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 4.23 | 2.13 | 31.93m | 772,884 | The Slowing |
| Cameroon | 4.26 | 2.16 | 29.12m | 752,405 | The Slowing |
| Sudan | 4.26 | 2.16 | 50.45m | 800,779 | The Slowing |
| Nigeria | 4.38 | 2.28 | 232.68m | 4,816,673 | The Slowing |
| Benin | 4.48 | 2.38 | 14.46m | 349,642 | The Slowing |
| Yemen | 4.50 | 2.40 | 40.58m | 1,191,807 | The Slowing |
| United Republic of Tanzania | 4.54 | 2.44 | 68.56m | 1,963,896 | The Slowing |
| Mayotte | 4.56 | 2.46 | 326.5k | 10,507 | The Slowing |
| Mauritania | 4.63 | 2.52 | 5.17m | 145,749 | The Slowing |
| Mozambique | 4.69 | 2.59 | 34.63m | 1,004,144 | The Slowing |
| Afghanistan | 4.76 | 2.66 | 42.65m | 1,205,676 | The Slowing |
| Burundi | 4.79 | 2.69 | 14.05m | 345,770 | The Slowing |
| Angola | 5.05 | 2.95 | 37.89m | 1,145,987 | The Slowing |
| Mali | 5.51 | 3.41 | 24.48m | 712,499 | The Slowing |
| Niger | 5.93 | 3.83 | 27.03m | 879,947 | The Slowing |
| Central African Republic | 5.95 | 3.85 | 5.33m | 180,881 | The Slowing |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 5.98 | 3.88 | 109.28m | 3,520,227 | The Slowing |
| Somalia | 6.01 | 3.91 | 19.01m | 646,650 | The Slowing |
| Chad | 6.03 | 3.93 | 20.30m | 857,358 | The Slowing |