headcount.earth -6,544,849

Homo sapiens; growth slowing toward a projected peak

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The Register · 2024

The Great Deflation board

Six objective markers. Stage 0 is intentionally crowded; Stage 5 remains open.

Stage source wpp2024 · formula stage-framework-v1 · Transition source wpp2024 · formula stage-framework-v1
00

The Slowing

Fertility falling, still at or above replacement.

95
  1. Afghanistan 1,205,676
  2. Algeria 634,425
  3. Angola 1,145,987
  4. Bangladesh 2,109,792
  5. Benin 349,642
  6. Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 168,982
  7. Botswana 41,174
  8. Burkina Faso 525,730
  9. Burundi 345,770
  10. Cambodia 211,435
  11. Cameroon 752,405
  12. Central African Republic 180,881
Expand Stage 0 · 83 more records
  1. Chad 857,358
  2. Comoros 16,242
  3. Congo 150,666
  4. Côte d'Ivoire 772,884
  5. Democratic Republic of the Congo 3,520,227
  6. Djibouti 15,700
  7. Dominican Republic 95,138
  8. Egypt 1,919,697
  9. Equatorial Guinea 45,797
  10. Eritrea 67,646
  11. Eswatini 13,031
  12. Ethiopia 3,409,487
  13. Faroe Islands 645
  14. Fiji 4,480
  15. French Guiana 5,123
  16. Gabon 54,179
  17. Gambia 62,165
  18. Ghana 637,913
  19. Guatemala 282,334
  20. Guinea 346,489
  21. Guinea-Bissau 47,928
  22. Guyana 4,909
  23. Haiti 134,724
  24. Honduras 180,623
  25. Indonesia 2,268,573
  26. Iraq 968,224
  27. Israel 130,408
  28. Jordan 43,866
  29. Kazakhstan 256,726
  30. Kenya 1,096,901
  31. Kiribati 1,982
  32. Kyrgyzstan 110,830
  33. Lao People's Democratic Republic 104,290
  34. Lesotho 25,949
  35. Liberia 118,850
  36. Libya 76,966
  37. Madagascar 773,132
  38. Malawi 558,308
  39. Mali 712,499
  40. Mauritania 145,749
  41. Mayotte 10,507
  42. Micronesia (Fed. States of) 535
  43. Mongolia 42,540
  44. Morocco 359,778
  45. Mozambique 1,004,144
  46. Namibia 63,956
  47. Nauru 83
  48. Nicaragua 92,139
  49. Niger 879,947
  50. Nigeria 4,816,673
  51. Oman 232,788
  52. Pakistan 3,867,148
  53. Panama 56,178
  54. Papua New Guinea 186,881
  55. Paraguay 84,774
  56. Rwanda 300,439
  57. Samoa 1,355
  58. Sao Tome and Principe 4,703
  59. Saudi Arabia 603,031
  60. Senegal 427,821
  61. Seychelles 2,423
  62. Sierra Leone 178,235
  63. Solomon Islands 19,318
  64. Somalia 646,650
  65. South Africa 758,605
  66. South Sudan 247,111
  67. State of Palestine 90,034
  68. Sudan 800,779
  69. Suriname 5,374
  70. Syrian Arab Republic 996,263
  71. Tajikistan 198,443
  72. Timor-Leste 17,826
  73. Togo 205,687
  74. Tokelau 107
  75. Turkmenistan 127,591
  76. Uganda 1,365,999
  77. United Republic of Tanzania 1,963,896
  78. Uzbekistan 702,810
  79. Vanuatu 7,385
  80. Western Sahara 10,646
  81. Yemen 1,191,807
  82. Zambia 594,815
  83. Zimbabwe 311,977
01

Early Warning

Total fertility below the replacement line.

56
  1. Antigua and Barbuda 445
  2. Argentina 156,762
  3. Australia 263,518
  4. Azerbaijan 63,577
  5. Bahamas 1,834
  6. Bahrain 38,489
  7. Belize 5,949
  8. Bhutan 4,837
  9. Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba 703
  10. Brazil 848,231
  11. British Virgin Islands 288
  12. Brunei Darussalam 3,705
  13. Cabo Verde 2,526
  14. Canada 407,892
  15. Cayman Islands 1,403
  16. Chile 100,681
  17. China, Macao SAR 2,790
  18. Colombia 553,325
  19. Costa Rica 23,670
  20. Cyprus 12,890
  21. Denmark 27,018
  22. Ecuador 154,641
  23. El Salvador 28,416
  24. French Polynesia 681
  25. Gibraltar 820
  26. Grenada 105
  27. Iceland 5,311
  28. India 12,999,094
02

The Turn

Working-age population has already peaked.

14
  1. Andorra 1,039
  2. Anguilla 151
  3. Barbados 183
  4. Dem. People's Republic of Korea 77,018
  5. Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 1
  6. France 104,743
  7. Guam 1,244
  8. Lebanon 40,341
  9. Liechtenstein 268
  10. Réunion 3,831
  11. Saint Kitts and Nevis 80
  12. Singapore 39,852
  13. Trinidad and Tobago 4,053
  14. Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 109,236
03

Crossover

Deaths exceed births.

10
  1. Aruba 113
  2. Belgium 22,163
  3. Curaçao 43
  4. Finland 10,533
  5. Guernsey 222
  6. Holy See 9
  7. Jersey 159
  8. Niue 7
  9. Saint Barthélemy 161
  10. Ukraine 837,923
04

Shrinkage

Total population falls in the display year.

62
  1. Albania -19,793
  2. American Samoa -752
  3. Armenia -21,195
  4. Austria -7,884
  5. Belarus -58,404
  6. Bermuda -71
  7. Bosnia and Herzegovina -22,854
  8. Bulgaria -41,067
  9. China -3,175,283
  10. China, Hong Kong SAR -36,337
  11. China, Taiwan Province of China -100,652
  12. Cook Islands -476
  13. Croatia -28,020
  14. Cuba -41,620
  15. Czechia -111,390
  16. Dominica -296
  17. Estonia -13,360
  18. Georgia -338
  19. Germany -286,642
  20. Greece -177,409
  21. Greenland -87
  22. Guadeloupe -1,300
  23. Hungary -27,175
  24. Isle of Man -25
  25. Italy -184,548
  26. Jamaica -1,294
  27. Japan -636,276
  28. Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) -12,262
05

Lock-in

No precedent; kept open.

0
Transition log
Year Country From To Source
2024 Armenia The Turn Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Azerbaijan Shrinkage Early Warning wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Estonia Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Falkland Islands (Malvinas) Shrinkage The Turn wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Georgia Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Germany Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Holy See Shrinkage Crossover wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Hungary Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Isle of Man Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Jamaica Early Warning Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Lithuania Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Montenegro Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Myanmar The Slowing Early Warning wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Niue Shrinkage Crossover wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Puerto Rico Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Slovakia Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Slovenia Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1
2024 Spain Crossover Shrinkage wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1