The Register · 2024
The Great Deflation board
Six objective markers. Stage 0 is intentionally crowded; Stage 5 remains open.
Stage source wpp2024 · formula stage-framework-v1 · Transition source wpp2024 · formula stage-framework-v1
The Slowing
Fertility falling, still at or above replacement.
95- Afghanistan 1,205,676
- Algeria 634,425
- Angola 1,145,987
- Bangladesh 2,109,792
- Benin 349,642
- Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 168,982
- Botswana 41,174
- Burkina Faso 525,730
- Burundi 345,770
- Cambodia 211,435
- Cameroon 752,405
- Central African Republic 180,881
Early Warning
Total fertility below the replacement line.
56- Antigua and Barbuda 445
- Argentina 156,762
- Australia 263,518
- Azerbaijan 63,577
- Bahamas 1,834
- Bahrain 38,489
- Belize 5,949
- Bhutan 4,837
- Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba 703
- Brazil 848,231
- British Virgin Islands 288
- Brunei Darussalam 3,705
- Cabo Verde 2,526
- Canada 407,892
- Cayman Islands 1,403
- Chile 100,681
- China, Macao SAR 2,790
- Colombia 553,325
- Costa Rica 23,670
- Cyprus 12,890
- Denmark 27,018
- Ecuador 154,641
- El Salvador 28,416
- French Polynesia 681
- Gibraltar 820
- Grenada 105
- Iceland 5,311
- India 12,999,094
The Turn
Working-age population has already peaked.
14- Andorra 1,039
- Anguilla 151
- Barbados 183
- Dem. People's Republic of Korea 77,018
- Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 1
- France 104,743
- Guam 1,244
- Lebanon 40,341
- Liechtenstein 268
- Réunion 3,831
- Saint Kitts and Nevis 80
- Singapore 39,852
- Trinidad and Tobago 4,053
- Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 109,236
Crossover
Deaths exceed births.
10Shrinkage
Total population falls in the display year.
62- Albania -19,793
- American Samoa -752
- Armenia -21,195
- Austria -7,884
- Belarus -58,404
- Bermuda -71
- Bosnia and Herzegovina -22,854
- Bulgaria -41,067
- China -3,175,283
- China, Hong Kong SAR -36,337
- China, Taiwan Province of China -100,652
- Cook Islands -476
- Croatia -28,020
- Cuba -41,620
- Czechia -111,390
- Dominica -296
- Estonia -13,360
- Georgia -338
- Germany -286,642
- Greece -177,409
- Greenland -87
- Guadeloupe -1,300
- Hungary -27,175
- Isle of Man -25
- Italy -184,548
- Jamaica -1,294
- Japan -636,276
- Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) -12,262
Lock-in
No precedent; kept open.
0| Year | Country | From | To | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Armenia | The Turn | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Azerbaijan | Shrinkage | Early Warning | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Estonia | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Falkland Islands (Malvinas) | Shrinkage | The Turn | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Georgia | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Germany | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Holy See | Shrinkage | Crossover | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Hungary | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Isle of Man | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Jamaica | Early Warning | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Lithuania | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Montenegro | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Myanmar | The Slowing | Early Warning | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Niue | Shrinkage | Crossover | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Puerto Rico | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Slovakia | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Slovenia | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |
| 2024 | Spain | Crossover | Shrinkage | wpp2024 · stage-framework-v1 |