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Countries / Italy

Population state · Sustained decline

Italy

Europe · Southern Europe · ITA · IT
Population state
Sustained decline
current run since 2014 · projected 2024
Fertility
1.21
18 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
World population rank
25
of 237
Regional population rank
5
of 50 in Europe
Population
59.34m
Annual change
−184,548
6th-largest annual loss in the record
Natural change
−279,791
Migrant share
11.0%
Peak population · 2014 Deaths exceed births · since 2007 Working-age peak · 1992 Support ratio · 2.58 people 15–64 per person 65+
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED

What drives population change?

Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.

Migration contribution Reduces decline

Positive net migration slows natural decline without reversing it.

Italy, 2024 projected: natural change −279,791 people, net migration +95,246, WPP adjustment −3, total population change −184,548. Positive net migration slows natural decline without reversing it.

Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a −3-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.

SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
SUSTAINED DECLINE · STATE-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE

Decline over time

11 source years · since 2014 Tied rank 18 of 29 by streak duration Duration, not severity
CARD 01 · ANNUAL TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE

Annual change through the streak

Each bar is one year’s total population change. View the same evidence as a share of that year’s population or as a count of people.

Births, deaths, net migration, and WPP adjustments are included.
−0.31%
2014–2024 · 11 source years Loss rate is steeper than at the start
Annual change bar chart
Observed through 2023 2024 projected

One discrete bar for each source year from 2014 through 2024. The chart includes total population change from births, deaths, net migration, and WPP adjustments; observed and projected rows are distinguished.

Annual total population change for Italy, 2014 to 2024
YearEvidencePercent of populationPeople
2014observed−0.08%−50.3k
2015observed−0.21%−127.4k
2016observed−0.11%−67.0k
2017observed−0.18%−108.6k
2018observed−0.19%−117.1k
2019observed−0.30%−177.7k
2020observed−0.43%−257.1k
2021observed−0.18%−109.8k
2022observed−0.19%−110.7k
2023observed−0.22%−128.6k
2024projected−0.31%−184.5k
First year−0.08%
Least negative−0.08% · 2014
Most negative−0.43% · 2020
2024−0.31%
CARD 02 · LITERAL SERIES MAXIMUM

Population below peak

Peak population minus the 2024 population, shown in people and as a share of the peak.

2.2%
1.32m people below peak
Population from peak line chart
Observed through 2023 2024 projected Focused scale · peak = 100

Annual total population from the literal series maximum in 2014 through 2024, indexed so the peak equals 100. The focused scale shows the stock path while exact annual populations remain in the table.

Annual total population from the literal peak through 2024
YearEvidencePopulation
2014observed60,664,171
2015observed60,575,316
2016observed60,478,107
2017observed60,390,318
2018observed60,277,499
2019observed60,130,136
2020observed59,912,769
2021observed59,729,350
2022observed59,619,115
2023observed59,499,453
2024projected59,342,867
Peak population · 2014
60.66m
2024 population
59.34m

From 60,664,171 people in 2014 to 59,342,867 in 2024. The endpoint is projected; the peak year is the literal maximum in the WPP series.

SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaannual-total-change-rate-v1 · population-below-peak-v1 · population-from-peak-v1 · sustained-decline-streak-rank-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/sustained-decline-profile.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship; streak rank compares the 29 canonical sustained-decline members only.
Reference timeAnnual source rows from 2014 through 2024; estimates through 2023, then medium-variant projection.
UnitWhole people and annual total change as a percentage of same-year population; the population-path chart indexes the literal peak to 100 while retaining exact annual counts.
Evidence statusprojected 2024 endpoint; observed/projected status is retained for every chart row.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
YearPopulationAnnual changeFertility
202459.34m−184,5481.21
205051.89m−389,7231.35
208040.23m−265,3991.43
210035.38m−239,1311.48

Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.

AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100

Youth and older population

Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.

First annual crossover
1998 · observed
Rule
65+ strictly exceeds under 18

Italy annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 31.8% in 1950 to 15.1% in 2023 and 13.5% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 8.1% to 24.2% and 37.5%. First annual crossover: 1998 · observed. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.

Youth and older population in Italy, 1950 to 2100 Italy annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 31.8% in 1950 to 15.1% in 2023 and 13.5% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 8.1% to 24.2% and 37.5%. First annual crossover: 1998 · observed. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1950 1975 2000 2023 2050 2075 2100 ESTIMATES · THROUGH 2023 WPP MEDIUM PROJECTION UNDER 18 · 13.5% 65+ · 37.5%
1950
Under 18 · 31.8%65+ · 8.1%
2023 observed
Under 18 · 15.1%65+ · 24.2%
2100 projected
Under 18 · 13.5%65+ · 37.5%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
Italy under-18 and 65+ population history
YearEvidenceUnder 18Share65+Share
1950 observed 14,773,720 31.8% 3,753,719 8.1%
1951 observed 14,768,602 31.6% 3,839,381 8.2%
1952 observed 14,701,501 31.3% 3,919,081 8.3%
1953 observed 14,637,217 30.9% 4,019,099 8.5%
1954 observed 14,613,893 30.6% 4,133,027 8.6%
1955 observed 14,594,013 30.3% 4,240,505 8.8%
1956 observed 14,556,676 30.1% 4,323,222 8.9%
1957 observed 14,502,557 29.8% 4,399,838 9.0%
1958 observed 14,455,250 29.5% 4,497,200 9.2%
1959 observed 14,464,082 29.4% 4,605,117 9.4%
1960 observed 14,545,665 29.4% 4,706,352 9.5%
1961 observed 14,650,157 29.4% 4,809,715 9.7%
1962 observed 14,765,546 29.4% 4,911,094 9.8%
1963 observed 14,908,961 29.5% 5,000,043 9.9%
1964 observed 15,036,964 29.5% 5,103,794 10.0%
1965 observed 15,114,188 29.4% 5,223,726 10.1%
1966 observed 15,167,447 29.2% 5,352,596 10.3%
1967 observed 15,223,475 29.1% 5,488,417 10.5%
1968 observed 15,284,122 29.0% 5,614,869 10.7%
1969 observed 15,360,560 28.9% 5,746,064 10.8%
1970 observed 15,454,848 28.9% 5,902,075 11.1%
1971 observed 15,546,603 28.9% 6,071,528 11.3%
1972 observed 15,648,079 28.9% 6,233,726 11.5%
1973 observed 15,745,353 28.9% 6,385,403 11.7%
1974 observed 15,821,321 28.9% 6,545,897 11.9%
1975 observed 15,874,635 28.8% 6,707,300 12.2%
1976 observed 15,883,963 28.6% 6,857,774 12.4%
1977 observed 15,832,121 28.4% 7,011,844 12.6%
1978 observed 15,716,050 28.1% 7,177,653 12.8%
1979 observed 15,547,258 27.7% 7,340,989 13.1%
1980 observed 15,366,430 27.2% 7,453,855 13.2%
1981 observed 15,114,763 26.7% 7,503,946 13.2%
1982 observed 14,780,715 26.1% 7,493,246 13.2%
1983 observed 14,427,800 25.4% 7,420,330 13.1%
1984 observed 14,062,151 24.8% 7,370,166 13.0%
1985 observed 13,704,447 24.1% 7,479,866 13.2%
1986 observed 13,341,431 23.5% 7,677,328 13.5%
1987 observed 12,980,513 22.8% 7,886,174 13.9%
1988 observed 12,642,470 22.2% 8,109,650 14.2%
1989 observed 12,301,273 21.6% 8,321,786 14.6%
1990 observed 11,955,144 21.0% 8,533,836 15.0%
1991 observed 11,490,354 20.1% 8,749,527 15.3%
1992 observed 11,087,576 19.4% 8,963,819 15.7%
1993 observed 10,857,421 19.0% 9,159,148 16.0%
1994 observed 10,622,715 18.5% 9,596,752 16.7%
1995 observed 10,420,474 18.2% 9,783,819 17.0%
1996 observed 10,267,257 18.0% 9,734,499 17.0%
1997 observed 10,160,653 17.8% 9,927,981 17.4%
1998 observed 10,083,212 17.6% 10,093,264 17.6%
1999 observed 10,012,656 17.5% 10,258,174 17.9%
2000 observed 9,943,939 17.4% 10,433,141 18.2%
2001 observed 9,885,610 17.3% 10,608,876 18.5%
2002 observed 9,858,455 17.2% 10,794,386 18.8%
2003 observed 9,876,198 17.1% 11,000,891 19.1%
2004 observed 9,927,091 17.1% 11,245,107 19.3%
2005 observed 10,005,765 17.1% 11,490,475 19.6%
2006 observed 10,058,961 17.1% 11,713,050 19.9%
2007 observed 10,096,554 17.1% 11,894,815 20.1%
2008 observed 10,145,978 17.0% 12,034,042 20.2%
2009 observed 10,174,015 17.0% 12,168,608 20.3%
2010 observed 10,175,649 16.9% 12,308,978 20.5%
2011 observed 10,162,807 16.8% 12,488,865 20.7%
2012 observed 10,156,270 16.8% 12,709,591 21.0%
2013 observed 10,139,078 16.7% 12,937,876 21.3%
2014 observed 10,088,678 16.6% 13,162,838 21.7%
2015 observed 10,014,106 16.5% 13,343,851 22.0%
2016 observed 9,919,571 16.4% 13,492,416 22.3%
2017 observed 9,808,841 16.2% 13,623,248 22.6%
2018 observed 9,680,017 16.1% 13,747,014 22.8%
2019 observed 9,539,882 15.9% 13,892,569 23.1%
2020 observed 9,397,092 15.7% 14,007,143 23.4%
2021 observed 9,253,334 15.5% 14,133,143 23.7%
2022 observed 9,111,215 15.3% 14,266,370 23.9%
2023 observed 8,955,208 15.1% 14,410,041 24.2%
2024 projected 8,787,282 14.8% 14,613,050 24.6%
2025 projected 8,615,557 14.6% 14,844,609 25.1%
2026 projected 8,435,428 14.3% 15,084,613 25.6%
2027 projected 8,253,219 14.1% 15,337,448 26.1%
2028 projected 8,077,455 13.8% 15,620,321 26.7%
2029 projected 7,913,425 13.6% 15,923,332 27.4%
2030 projected 7,758,964 13.4% 16,242,093 28.0%
2031 projected 7,617,193 13.2% 16,555,885 28.7%
2032 projected 7,490,990 13.0% 16,855,558 29.4%
2033 projected 7,376,861 12.9% 17,154,869 30.0%
2034 projected 7,273,585 12.8% 17,440,876 30.7%
2035 projected 7,181,839 12.7% 17,709,031 31.3%
2036 projected 7,109,503 12.6% 17,974,046 31.9%
2037 projected 7,059,030 12.6% 18,229,245 32.5%
2038 projected 7,023,881 12.6% 18,468,419 33.1%
2039 projected 6,993,054 12.6% 18,694,945 33.7%
2040 projected 6,965,750 12.6% 18,901,072 34.2%
2041 projected 6,951,437 12.7% 19,071,397 34.7%
2042 projected 6,944,457 12.7% 19,201,260 35.1%
2043 projected 6,935,518 12.8% 19,290,735 35.5%
2044 projected 6,927,358 12.8% 19,342,161 35.8%
2045 projected 6,919,018 12.9% 19,362,391 36.1%
2046 projected 6,907,622 12.9% 19,362,303 36.3%
2047 projected 6,892,298 13.0% 19,341,443 36.5%
2048 projected 6,873,197 13.1% 19,290,006 36.6%
2049 projected 6,849,685 13.1% 19,212,317 36.8%
2050 projected 6,819,570 13.1% 19,110,465 36.8%
2051 projected 6,783,983 13.2% 18,987,004 36.9%
2052 projected 6,743,320 13.2% 18,842,488 36.9%
2053 projected 6,695,504 13.2% 18,704,703 36.9%
2054 projected 6,640,659 13.2% 18,574,194 36.9%
2055 projected 6,579,883 13.2% 18,431,304 37.0%
2056 projected 6,513,035 13.2% 18,278,793 37.0%
2057 projected 6,442,147 13.2% 18,112,861 37.0%
2058 projected 6,368,595 13.1% 17,925,782 37.0%
2059 projected 6,292,834 13.1% 17,714,176 36.9%
2060 projected 6,216,971 13.1% 17,493,405 36.8%
2061 projected 6,141,502 13.0% 17,270,463 36.6%
2062 projected 6,066,979 13.0% 17,048,158 36.5%
2063 projected 5,995,832 13.0% 16,831,950 36.4%
2064 projected 5,929,383 13.0% 16,623,788 36.3%
2065 projected 5,867,568 12.9% 16,424,749 36.2%
2066 projected 5,811,064 12.9% 16,234,464 36.1%
2067 projected 5,760,847 12.9% 16,052,109 36.1%
2068 projected 5,715,975 13.0% 15,888,939 36.0%
2069 projected 5,675,380 13.0% 15,752,420 36.0%
2070 projected 5,639,558 13.0% 15,637,379 36.1%
2071 projected 5,609,142 13.0% 15,541,410 36.2%
2072 projected 5,583,078 13.1% 15,463,847 36.3%
2073 projected 5,560,429 13.1% 15,400,445 36.4%
2074 projected 5,540,454 13.2% 15,347,249 36.6%
2075 projected 5,523,112 13.3% 15,299,290 36.7%
2076 projected 5,508,763 13.3% 15,251,565 36.9%
2077 projected 5,495,362 13.4% 15,203,788 37.0%
2078 projected 5,481,065 13.4% 15,152,330 37.2%
2079 projected 5,465,390 13.5% 15,096,811 37.3%
2080 projected 5,448,858 13.5% 15,040,564 37.4%
2081 projected 5,431,228 13.6% 14,982,675 37.5%
2082 projected 5,411,526 13.6% 14,921,965 37.6%
2083 projected 5,389,724 13.7% 14,851,607 37.6%
2084 projected 5,365,170 13.7% 14,768,730 37.7%
2085 projected 5,337,488 13.7% 14,677,936 37.7%
2086 projected 5,307,843 13.7% 14,588,024 37.7%
2087 projected 5,275,717 13.7% 14,498,395 37.7%
2088 projected 5,240,448 13.7% 14,400,808 37.7%
2089 projected 5,202,396 13.7% 14,299,176 37.6%
2090 projected 5,162,406 13.7% 14,199,712 37.6%
2091 projected 5,121,742 13.7% 14,101,181 37.6%
2092 projected 5,079,941 13.6% 14,003,557 37.6%
2093 projected 5,037,890 13.6% 13,907,095 37.6%
2094 projected 4,996,548 13.6% 13,811,324 37.5%
2095 projected 4,955,329 13.6% 13,715,917 37.5%
2096 projected 4,915,260 13.5% 13,620,791 37.5%
2097 projected 4,876,581 13.5% 13,526,342 37.5%
2098 projected 4,840,031 13.5% 13,433,331 37.5%
2099 projected 4,805,454 13.5% 13,342,152 37.5%
2100 projected 4,772,084 13.5% 13,252,662 37.5%
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
Download image card Compare Italy with…
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.