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Countries / Tonga

Population state · Declining

Tonga

Oceania · Polynesia · TON · TO
SMALL POPULATION · Full population counts are shown; ratios with unstable small bases are suppressed.
Population state
Declining
current run since 2021 · projected 2024
Fertility
3.10
182 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
World population rank
198
of 237
Regional population rank
13
of 23 in Oceania
Population
104,175
Annual change
−407
49th-largest annual loss in the recordsmall absolute movement
Natural change
+1,729
Migrant share
3.4%
Peak population · projected 2100 Deaths exceed births · not in this year Working-age peak · not reached Support ratio · 8.62 people 15–64 per person 65+
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED

What drives population change?

Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.

Migration contribution Reverses growth

Negative net migration is large enough to reverse natural growth.

Tonga, 2024 projected: natural change +1,729 people, net migration −2,149, WPP adjustment +13, total population change −407. Negative net migration is large enough to reverse natural growth.

Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a +13-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.

SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
YearPopulationAnnual changeFertility
2024104,175−4073.10
2050105,195+2352.45
2080114,843+3292.07
2100117,871−151.93

Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.

AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100

Youth and older population

Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.

First annual crossover
2100 · projected
Rule
65+ strictly exceeds under 18

Tonga annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 50.9% in 1950 to 42.4% in 2023 and 21.1% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 4.6% to 6.6% and 21.4%. First annual crossover: 2100 · projected. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.

Youth and older population in Tonga, 1950 to 2100 Tonga annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 50.9% in 1950 to 42.4% in 2023 and 21.1% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 4.6% to 6.6% and 21.4%. First annual crossover: 2100 · projected. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024. 0% 20% 40% 60% 1950 1975 2000 2023 2050 2075 2100 ESTIMATES · THROUGH 2023 WPP MEDIUM PROJECTION UNDER 18 · 21.1% 65+ · 21.4%
1950
Under 18 · 50.9%65+ · 4.6%
2023 observed
Under 18 · 42.4%65+ · 6.6%
2100 projected
Under 18 · 21.1%65+ · 21.4%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
Tonga under-18 and 65+ population history
YearEvidenceUnder 18Share65+Share
1950 observed 25,256 50.9% 2,279 4.6%
1951 observed 25,981 51.0% 2,209 4.3%
1952 observed 26,776 51.1% 2,156 4.1%
1953 observed 27,639 51.3% 2,102 3.9%
1954 observed 28,578 51.5% 2,054 3.7%
1955 observed 29,576 51.7% 2,019 3.5%
1956 observed 30,635 51.8% 1,991 3.4%
1957 observed 31,633 52.0% 1,986 3.3%
1958 observed 32,546 52.0% 1,997 3.2%
1959 observed 33,494 52.1% 2,024 3.1%
1960 observed 34,477 52.1% 2,055 3.1%
1961 observed 35,481 52.1% 2,101 3.1%
1962 observed 36,488 52.2% 2,159 3.1%
1963 observed 37,501 52.2% 2,218 3.1%
1964 observed 38,514 52.1% 2,281 3.1%
1965 observed 39,580 52.1% 2,356 3.1%
1966 observed 40,676 52.1% 2,428 3.1%
1967 observed 41,736 52.3% 2,497 3.1%
1968 observed 42,755 52.6% 2,548 3.1%
1969 observed 43,744 52.8% 2,603 3.1%
1970 observed 44,682 52.9% 2,663 3.2%
1971 observed 45,540 53.0% 2,726 3.2%
1972 observed 46,319 53.0% 2,787 3.2%
1973 observed 47,046 53.0% 2,843 3.2%
1974 observed 48,101 53.0% 2,911 3.2%
1975 observed 49,487 53.2% 2,980 3.2%
1976 observed 50,786 53.3% 3,059 3.2%
1977 observed 51,296 53.0% 3,143 3.2%
1978 observed 51,074 52.5% 3,214 3.3%
1979 observed 50,801 52.1% 3,292 3.4%
1980 observed 50,517 51.7% 3,364 3.4%
1981 observed 50,234 51.3% 3,459 3.5%
1982 observed 49,958 51.0% 3,554 3.6%
1983 observed 49,678 50.7% 3,660 3.7%
1984 observed 49,395 50.4% 3,778 3.9%
1985 observed 49,075 50.1% 3,912 4.0%
1986 observed 48,730 49.7% 4,035 4.1%
1987 observed 48,351 49.2% 4,146 4.2%
1988 observed 47,959 48.5% 4,241 4.3%
1989 observed 47,616 47.9% 4,329 4.4%
1990 observed 47,327 47.5% 4,428 4.4%
1991 observed 47,112 47.2% 4,531 4.5%
1992 observed 46,967 47.0% 4,649 4.6%
1993 observed 46,890 46.8% 4,767 4.8%
1994 observed 46,869 46.8% 4,896 4.9%
1995 observed 46,878 46.8% 5,016 5.0%
1996 observed 46,842 46.7% 5,139 5.1%
1997 observed 46,722 46.4% 5,267 5.2%
1998 observed 46,557 45.9% 5,374 5.3%
1999 observed 46,415 45.5% 5,461 5.4%
2000 observed 46,326 45.1% 5,548 5.4%
2001 observed 46,301 44.8% 5,624 5.4%
2002 observed 46,337 44.6% 5,706 5.5%
2003 observed 46,463 44.5% 5,801 5.6%
2004 observed 46,699 44.4% 5,894 5.6%
2005 observed 47,024 44.5% 5,986 5.7%
2006 observed 47,412 44.6% 6,056 5.7%
2007 observed 47,592 44.6% 6,108 5.7%
2008 observed 47,526 44.4% 6,146 5.7%
2009 observed 47,435 44.2% 6,149 5.7%
2010 observed 47,399 44.1% 6,196 5.8%
2011 observed 47,355 44.0% 6,296 5.9%
2012 observed 47,055 43.8% 6,375 5.9%
2013 observed 46,503 43.4% 6,406 6.0%
2014 observed 46,029 43.2% 6,392 6.0%
2015 observed 45,759 43.1% 6,374 6.0%
2016 observed 45,491 43.1% 6,359 6.0%
2017 observed 45,313 43.0% 6,392 6.1%
2018 observed 45,202 42.8% 6,487 6.1%
2019 observed 45,059 42.6% 6,586 6.2%
2020 observed 44,939 42.5% 6,698 6.3%
2021 observed 44,757 42.4% 6,769 6.4%
2022 observed 44,539 42.4% 6,829 6.5%
2023 observed 44,314 42.4% 6,904 6.6%
2024 projected 43,958 42.2% 6,990 6.7%
2025 projected 43,461 41.9% 7,100 6.8%
2026 projected 42,937 41.6% 7,206 7.0%
2027 projected 42,361 41.2% 7,301 7.1%
2028 projected 41,671 40.6% 7,390 7.2%
2029 projected 40,938 40.0% 7,488 7.3%
2030 projected 40,261 39.4% 7,671 7.5%
2031 projected 39,599 38.9% 7,909 7.8%
2032 projected 38,930 38.2% 8,148 8.0%
2033 projected 38,302 37.6% 8,397 8.2%
2034 projected 37,805 37.1% 8,686 8.5%
2035 projected 37,491 36.8% 8,964 8.8%
2036 projected 37,287 36.6% 9,220 9.0%
2037 projected 37,143 36.4% 9,436 9.3%
2038 projected 37,037 36.2% 9,614 9.4%
2039 projected 36,924 36.1% 9,773 9.5%
2040 projected 36,802 35.9% 9,924 9.7%
2041 projected 36,727 35.7% 10,072 9.8%
2042 projected 36,688 35.6% 10,183 9.9%
2043 projected 36,660 35.5% 10,308 10.0%
2044 projected 36,642 35.4% 10,447 10.1%
2045 projected 36,626 35.2% 10,595 10.2%
2046 projected 36,581 35.1% 10,716 10.3%
2047 projected 36,510 34.9% 10,832 10.4%
2048 projected 36,394 34.7% 10,959 10.5%
2049 projected 36,242 34.5% 11,092 10.6%
2050 projected 36,046 34.3% 11,210 10.7%
2051 projected 35,805 34.0% 11,299 10.7%
2052 projected 35,518 33.6% 11,350 10.7%
2053 projected 35,195 33.3% 11,327 10.7%
2054 projected 34,844 32.9% 11,258 10.6%
2055 projected 34,469 32.4% 11,198 10.5%
2056 projected 34,078 32.0% 11,136 10.5%
2057 projected 33,684 31.6% 11,028 10.3%
2058 projected 33,297 31.1% 10,930 10.2%
2059 projected 32,910 30.7% 10,817 10.1%
2060 projected 32,532 30.3% 10,738 10.0%
2061 projected 32,176 29.9% 10,640 9.9%
2062 projected 31,838 29.4% 10,483 9.7%
2063 projected 31,533 29.1% 10,322 9.5%
2064 projected 31,251 28.7% 10,240 9.4%
2065 projected 30,989 28.4% 10,296 9.4%
2066 projected 30,762 28.1% 10,465 9.6%
2067 projected 30,571 27.8% 10,670 9.7%
2068 projected 30,407 27.6% 10,985 10.0%
2069 projected 30,262 27.4% 11,370 10.3%
2070 projected 30,140 27.1% 11,777 10.6%
2071 projected 30,035 27.0% 12,230 11.0%
2072 projected 29,947 26.8% 12,713 11.4%
2073 projected 29,851 26.6% 13,216 11.8%
2074 projected 29,759 26.4% 13,784 12.2%
2075 projected 29,663 26.3% 14,465 12.8%
2076 projected 29,555 26.1% 15,210 13.4%
2077 projected 29,432 25.9% 15,933 14.0%
2078 projected 29,297 25.7% 16,689 14.6%
2079 projected 29,145 25.5% 17,469 15.3%
2080 projected 28,977 25.2% 18,239 15.9%
2081 projected 28,788 25.0% 18,913 16.4%
2082 projected 28,590 24.8% 19,466 16.9%
2083 projected 28,371 24.5% 19,941 17.2%
2084 projected 28,148 24.3% 20,370 17.6%
2085 projected 27,906 24.0% 20,788 17.9%
2086 projected 27,657 23.8% 21,208 18.2%
2087 projected 27,403 23.5% 21,624 18.5%
2088 projected 27,148 23.2% 22,001 18.8%
2089 projected 26,892 23.0% 22,332 19.1%
2090 projected 26,643 22.7% 22,635 19.3%
2091 projected 26,401 22.5% 22,911 19.5%
2092 projected 26,172 22.3% 23,174 19.7%
2093 projected 25,946 22.1% 23,416 19.9%
2094 projected 25,742 21.9% 23,657 20.1%
2095 projected 25,557 21.7% 23,893 20.3%
2096 projected 25,381 21.6% 24,138 20.5%
2097 projected 25,213 21.4% 24,384 20.7%
2098 projected 25,076 21.3% 24,639 20.9%
2099 projected 24,943 21.2% 24,918 21.1%
2100 projected 24,822 21.1% 25,196 21.4%
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
Download image card Compare Tonga with…
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.