Papua New Guinea
Oceania · Melanesia · PNG · PG
- Fertility
- 3.07 181 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
- World population rank
- 92 of 237
- Regional population rank
- 2 of 23 in Oceania
- Population
- 10.58m
- Annual change
- +186,881
- Natural change
- +187,591
- Migrant share
- 0.3%
Peak population · projected 2100 Deaths exceed births · not in this year Working-age peak · not reached Support ratio · 18.20 people 15–64 per person 65+
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED
What drives population change?
Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.
Migration contribution Reduces growth
Negative net migration slows natural growth without reversing it.
Papua New Guinea, 2024 projected: natural change +187,591 people, net migration −707, WPP adjustment −3, total population change +186,881. Negative net migration slows natural growth without reversing it.
Natural change +187,591 births minus deaths
+ Net migration −707 net balance
≈ Total change +186,881 people per year
Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a −3-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
GROWING · STATE-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE
Growth in this series
75 source years · since 1950 Growing cohort
- Current run
- Since 1950 75 consecutive years · projected 2024
- Latest annual gain
- +186,881 1.77% of 2024 population
- Series maximum
- not established in this series Still rising at the 2100 horizon of this release.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
Papua New Guinea observed 2023 population pyramid. Mirrored bars compare male and female population from oldest to youngest across 85+, 80–84, 75–79, 70–74, 65–69, 60–64, 55–59, 50–54, 45–49, 40–44, 35–39, 30–34, 25–29, 20–24, 15–19, 10–14, 5–9, 0–4 age bands.
MALEFEMALE
85+
80–84
75–79
70–74
65–69
60–64
55–59
50–54
45–49
40–44
35–39
30–34
25–29
20–24
15–19
10–14
5–9
0–4
0–14 · 3.51m15–64 · 6.53m65+ · 347.9k
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
| Year | Population | Annual change | Fertility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10.58m | +186,881 | 3.07 |
| 2050 | 14.91m | +140,606 | 2.37 |
| 2080 | 17.91m | +64,700 | 2.01 |
| 2100 | 18.64m | +9,031 | 1.88 |
Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.
AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100
Youth and older population
Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.
- First annual crossover
- Not reached by 2100
- Rule
- 65+ strictly exceeds under 18
Papua New Guinea annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 49.2% in 1950 to 39.8% in 2023 and 22.9% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 1.1% to 3.3% and 15.6%. First annual crossover: Not reached by 2100. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.
- 1950
- Under 18 · 49.2%65+ · 1.1%
- 2023 observed
- Under 18 · 39.8%65+ · 3.3%
- 2100 projected
- Under 18 · 22.9%65+ · 15.6%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
| Year | Evidence | Under 18 | Share | 65+ | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | observed | 759,397 | 49.2% | 16,909 | 1.1% |
| 1951 | observed | 769,081 | 48.8% | 17,306 | 1.1% |
| 1952 | observed | 781,604 | 48.6% | 17,693 | 1.1% |
| 1953 | observed | 798,666 | 48.4% | 18,183 | 1.1% |
| 1954 | observed | 818,306 | 48.3% | 18,691 | 1.1% |
| 1955 | observed | 840,457 | 48.3% | 19,212 | 1.1% |
| 1956 | observed | 865,161 | 48.4% | 19,784 | 1.1% |
| 1957 | observed | 891,945 | 48.5% | 20,376 | 1.1% |
| 1958 | observed | 920,441 | 48.7% | 20,990 | 1.1% |
| 1959 | observed | 950,246 | 48.9% | 21,603 | 1.1% |
| 1960 | observed | 981,209 | 49.2% | 22,219 | 1.1% |
| 1961 | observed | 1,011,173 | 49.4% | 22,723 | 1.1% |
| 1962 | observed | 1,039,635 | 49.6% | 23,057 | 1.1% |
| 1963 | observed | 1,067,978 | 49.9% | 23,264 | 1.1% |
| 1964 | observed | 1,096,183 | 50.1% | 23,417 | 1.1% |
| 1965 | observed | 1,125,196 | 50.3% | 23,558 | 1.1% |
| 1966 | observed | 1,155,895 | 50.6% | 23,843 | 1.0% |
| 1967 | observed | 1,187,801 | 50.8% | 24,342 | 1.0% |
| 1968 | observed | 1,220,504 | 51.1% | 24,934 | 1.0% |
| 1969 | observed | 1,254,649 | 51.3% | 25,606 | 1.0% |
| 1970 | observed | 1,290,290 | 51.5% | 26,348 | 1.1% |
| 1971 | observed | 1,326,916 | 51.7% | 27,175 | 1.1% |
| 1972 | observed | 1,362,177 | 51.8% | 27,918 | 1.1% |
| 1973 | observed | 1,394,889 | 51.8% | 28,623 | 1.1% |
| 1974 | observed | 1,425,999 | 51.8% | 29,537 | 1.1% |
| 1975 | observed | 1,455,308 | 51.7% | 30,701 | 1.1% |
| 1976 | observed | 1,482,676 | 51.5% | 32,152 | 1.1% |
| 1977 | observed | 1,508,314 | 51.3% | 33,928 | 1.2% |
| 1978 | observed | 1,532,193 | 51.0% | 36,080 | 1.2% |
| 1979 | observed | 1,554,053 | 50.7% | 38,633 | 1.3% |
| 1980 | observed | 1,574,079 | 50.3% | 41,639 | 1.3% |
| 1981 | observed | 1,597,489 | 50.0% | 45,053 | 1.4% |
| 1982 | observed | 1,625,164 | 49.8% | 48,754 | 1.5% |
| 1983 | observed | 1,653,654 | 49.6% | 52,698 | 1.6% |
| 1984 | observed | 1,683,404 | 49.4% | 56,848 | 1.7% |
| 1985 | observed | 1,714,518 | 49.3% | 61,163 | 1.8% |
| 1986 | observed | 1,747,143 | 49.1% | 65,579 | 1.8% |
| 1987 | observed | 1,781,042 | 49.0% | 70,029 | 1.9% |
| 1988 | observed | 1,815,984 | 48.9% | 74,440 | 2.0% |
| 1989 | observed | 1,853,151 | 48.8% | 78,909 | 2.1% |
| 1990 | observed | 1,896,605 | 48.7% | 84,002 | 2.2% |
| 1991 | observed | 1,949,545 | 48.5% | 89,553 | 2.2% |
| 1992 | observed | 2,009,979 | 48.2% | 94,985 | 2.3% |
| 1993 | observed | 2,073,955 | 48.0% | 100,386 | 2.3% |
| 1994 | observed | 2,139,583 | 47.8% | 105,769 | 2.4% |
| 1995 | observed | 2,206,454 | 47.5% | 111,179 | 2.4% |
| 1996 | observed | 2,275,160 | 47.3% | 116,649 | 2.4% |
| 1997 | observed | 2,346,288 | 47.0% | 122,195 | 2.4% |
| 1998 | observed | 2,419,124 | 46.8% | 127,780 | 2.5% |
| 1999 | observed | 2,494,094 | 46.6% | 133,448 | 2.5% |
| 2000 | observed | 2,571,226 | 46.4% | 139,260 | 2.5% |
| 2001 | observed | 2,648,933 | 46.2% | 145,486 | 2.5% |
| 2002 | observed | 2,727,074 | 46.0% | 152,094 | 2.6% |
| 2003 | observed | 2,805,775 | 45.8% | 158,695 | 2.6% |
| 2004 | observed | 2,884,402 | 45.6% | 165,280 | 2.6% |
| 2005 | observed | 2,962,650 | 45.3% | 171,858 | 2.6% |
| 2006 | observed | 3,040,072 | 45.1% | 178,481 | 2.6% |
| 2007 | observed | 3,116,472 | 44.8% | 185,227 | 2.7% |
| 2008 | observed | 3,193,648 | 44.5% | 192,187 | 2.7% |
| 2009 | observed | 3,272,264 | 44.2% | 199,429 | 2.7% |
| 2010 | observed | 3,351,288 | 43.9% | 207,001 | 2.7% |
| 2011 | observed | 3,428,005 | 43.6% | 214,805 | 2.7% |
| 2012 | observed | 3,501,395 | 43.3% | 222,664 | 2.8% |
| 2013 | observed | 3,573,348 | 43.0% | 230,790 | 2.8% |
| 2014 | observed | 3,643,819 | 42.8% | 239,377 | 2.8% |
| 2015 | observed | 3,711,973 | 42.5% | 248,702 | 2.8% |
| 2016 | observed | 3,777,427 | 42.2% | 258,818 | 2.9% |
| 2017 | observed | 3,839,882 | 41.8% | 269,537 | 2.9% |
| 2018 | observed | 3,899,988 | 41.5% | 280,996 | 3.0% |
| 2019 | observed | 3,957,705 | 41.2% | 293,142 | 3.1% |
| 2020 | observed | 4,010,315 | 40.9% | 305,323 | 3.1% |
| 2021 | observed | 4,058,037 | 40.5% | 317,505 | 3.2% |
| 2022 | observed | 4,101,401 | 40.2% | 331,301 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | observed | 4,140,119 | 39.8% | 347,872 | 3.3% |
| 2024 | projected | 4,176,842 | 39.5% | 366,436 | 3.5% |
| 2025 | projected | 4,212,238 | 39.1% | 386,177 | 3.6% |
| 2026 | projected | 4,245,328 | 38.8% | 407,131 | 3.7% |
| 2027 | projected | 4,276,154 | 38.4% | 429,273 | 3.9% |
| 2028 | projected | 4,304,198 | 38.0% | 452,383 | 4.0% |
| 2029 | projected | 4,329,290 | 37.7% | 476,298 | 4.1% |
| 2030 | projected | 4,352,363 | 37.3% | 500,925 | 4.3% |
| 2031 | projected | 4,373,519 | 36.9% | 526,067 | 4.4% |
| 2032 | projected | 4,392,862 | 36.5% | 551,623 | 4.6% |
| 2033 | projected | 4,411,098 | 36.2% | 577,505 | 4.7% |
| 2034 | projected | 4,428,589 | 35.8% | 603,783 | 4.9% |
| 2035 | projected | 4,445,210 | 35.4% | 630,553 | 5.0% |
| 2036 | projected | 4,460,582 | 35.1% | 657,915 | 5.2% |
| 2037 | projected | 4,474,526 | 34.7% | 686,139 | 5.3% |
| 2038 | projected | 4,487,222 | 34.4% | 715,199 | 5.5% |
| 2039 | projected | 4,499,203 | 34.1% | 744,780 | 5.6% |
| 2040 | projected | 4,511,198 | 33.7% | 774,796 | 5.8% |
| 2041 | projected | 4,524,122 | 33.4% | 805,227 | 5.9% |
| 2042 | projected | 4,537,068 | 33.1% | 836,058 | 6.1% |
| 2043 | projected | 4,549,739 | 32.8% | 867,166 | 6.3% |
| 2044 | projected | 4,563,063 | 32.6% | 898,537 | 6.4% |
| 2045 | projected | 4,576,762 | 32.3% | 930,179 | 6.6% |
| 2046 | projected | 4,590,215 | 32.1% | 962,038 | 6.7% |
| 2047 | projected | 4,603,158 | 31.8% | 994,232 | 6.9% |
| 2048 | projected | 4,615,773 | 31.6% | 1,027,189 | 7.0% |
| 2049 | projected | 4,628,004 | 31.3% | 1,061,110 | 7.2% |
| 2050 | projected | 4,639,202 | 31.1% | 1,095,879 | 7.4% |
| 2051 | projected | 4,649,138 | 30.9% | 1,131,456 | 7.5% |
| 2052 | projected | 4,658,270 | 30.7% | 1,167,857 | 7.7% |
| 2053 | projected | 4,666,228 | 30.5% | 1,205,249 | 7.9% |
| 2054 | projected | 4,673,104 | 30.2% | 1,243,495 | 8.0% |
| 2055 | projected | 4,678,893 | 30.0% | 1,281,341 | 8.2% |
| 2056 | projected | 4,683,262 | 29.8% | 1,318,089 | 8.4% |
| 2057 | projected | 4,686,428 | 29.6% | 1,354,466 | 8.6% |
| 2058 | projected | 4,688,357 | 29.4% | 1,390,933 | 8.7% |
| 2059 | projected | 4,689,097 | 29.2% | 1,427,223 | 8.9% |
| 2060 | projected | 4,689,083 | 29.0% | 1,462,919 | 9.0% |
| 2061 | projected | 4,687,732 | 28.8% | 1,498,080 | 9.2% |
| 2062 | projected | 4,684,659 | 28.6% | 1,532,950 | 9.3% |
| 2063 | projected | 4,680,303 | 28.3% | 1,567,680 | 9.5% |
| 2064 | projected | 4,675,429 | 28.1% | 1,602,567 | 9.6% |
| 2065 | projected | 4,670,445 | 27.9% | 1,637,402 | 9.8% |
| 2066 | projected | 4,665,064 | 27.7% | 1,672,154 | 9.9% |
| 2067 | projected | 4,659,197 | 27.5% | 1,707,317 | 10.1% |
| 2068 | projected | 4,652,722 | 27.4% | 1,742,860 | 10.2% |
| 2069 | projected | 4,645,604 | 27.2% | 1,778,347 | 10.4% |
| 2070 | projected | 4,637,908 | 27.0% | 1,813,696 | 10.6% |
| 2071 | projected | 4,629,976 | 26.8% | 1,849,096 | 10.7% |
| 2072 | projected | 4,621,917 | 26.6% | 1,884,520 | 10.9% |
| 2073 | projected | 4,613,163 | 26.5% | 1,920,156 | 11.0% |
| 2074 | projected | 4,603,806 | 26.3% | 1,956,138 | 11.2% |
| 2075 | projected | 4,594,169 | 26.1% | 1,993,055 | 11.3% |
| 2076 | projected | 4,584,297 | 26.0% | 2,031,069 | 11.5% |
| 2077 | projected | 4,574,542 | 25.8% | 2,069,426 | 11.7% |
| 2078 | projected | 4,565,237 | 25.7% | 2,108,132 | 11.9% |
| 2079 | projected | 4,555,945 | 25.5% | 2,147,263 | 12.0% |
| 2080 | projected | 4,546,659 | 25.4% | 2,186,622 | 12.2% |
| 2081 | projected | 4,537,082 | 25.2% | 2,225,905 | 12.4% |
| 2082 | projected | 4,526,530 | 25.1% | 2,264,987 | 12.6% |
| 2083 | projected | 4,515,761 | 25.0% | 2,304,278 | 12.7% |
| 2084 | projected | 4,504,719 | 24.8% | 2,343,936 | 12.9% |
| 2085 | projected | 4,493,307 | 24.7% | 2,383,793 | 13.1% |
| 2086 | projected | 4,481,910 | 24.6% | 2,423,579 | 13.3% |
| 2087 | projected | 4,469,959 | 24.4% | 2,462,705 | 13.5% |
| 2088 | projected | 4,457,246 | 24.3% | 2,500,442 | 13.6% |
| 2089 | projected | 4,443,918 | 24.2% | 2,537,318 | 13.8% |
| 2090 | projected | 4,430,365 | 24.1% | 2,573,880 | 14.0% |
| 2091 | projected | 4,416,603 | 23.9% | 2,609,671 | 14.1% |
| 2092 | projected | 4,402,158 | 23.8% | 2,644,771 | 14.3% |
| 2093 | projected | 4,387,150 | 23.7% | 2,679,299 | 14.5% |
| 2094 | projected | 4,371,581 | 23.6% | 2,713,133 | 14.6% |
| 2095 | projected | 4,355,189 | 23.5% | 2,746,275 | 14.8% |
| 2096 | projected | 4,338,068 | 23.3% | 2,778,917 | 15.0% |
| 2097 | projected | 4,320,228 | 23.2% | 2,811,195 | 15.1% |
| 2098 | projected | 4,301,674 | 23.1% | 2,843,297 | 15.3% |
| 2099 | projected | 4,282,709 | 23.0% | 2,875,287 | 15.4% |
| 2100 | projected | 4,263,143 | 22.9% | 2,907,139 | 15.6% |
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.