Population state · Sustained decline
Tuvalu
Oceania · Polynesia · TUV · TV
SMALL POPULATION · Full population counts are shown; ratios with unstable small bases are suppressed.
- Fertility
- 3.17 185 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
- World population rank
- 230 of 237
- Regional population rank
- 21 of 23 in Oceania
- Population
- 9,646
- Annual change
- −163 53rd-largest annual loss in the recordsmall absolute movement
- Natural change
- +123
- Migrant share
- 2.5%
Peak population · projected 2100 Deaths exceed births · not in this year Working-age peak · not reached Support ratio · suppressed
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED
What drives population change?
Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.
Migration contribution Reverses growth
Negative net migration is large enough to reverse natural growth.
Tuvalu, 2024 projected: natural change +123 people, net migration −280, WPP adjustment −6, total population change −163. Negative net migration is large enough to reverse natural growth.
Natural change +123 births minus deaths
+ Net migration −280 net balance
≈ Total change −163 people per year
Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a −6-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
SUSTAINED DECLINE · STATE-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE
Decline over time
12 source years · since 2013 Rank 17 of 29 by streak duration Duration, not severity
CARD 01 · ANNUAL TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE
Annual change through the streak
Each bar is one year’s total population change. View the same evidence as a share of that year’s population or as a count of people.
Births, deaths, net migration, and WPP adjustments are included. 2013–2024 · 12 source years Loss rate is steeper than at the start
Observed through 2023 2024 projected
One discrete bar for each source year from 2013 through 2024. The chart includes total population change from births, deaths, net migration, and WPP adjustments; observed and projected rows are distinguished.
| Year | Evidence | Percent of population | People |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | observed | −0.12% | −13 |
| 2014 | observed | −0.18% | −20 |
| 2015 | observed | −0.20% | −22 |
| 2016 | observed | −0.41% | −45 |
| 2017 | observed | −0.70% | −76 |
| 2018 | observed | −1.50% | −161 |
| 2019 | observed | −1.68% | −178 |
| 2020 | observed | −1.78% | −185 |
| 2021 | observed | −2.23% | −227 |
| 2022 | observed | −1.76% | −176 |
| 2023 | observed | −1.80% | −177 |
| 2024 | projected | −1.69% | −163 |
First year−0.12%
Least negative−0.12% · 2013
Most negative−2.23% · 2021
2024−1.69%
CARD 02 · LITERAL SERIES MAXIMUM
Population below peak not established
The literal WPP series maximum is projected after 2024, so an earlier peak-to-current comparison is not available.
- Current state
- Sustained decline
- Series maximum
- Projected 2100
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaannual-total-change-rate-v1 · population-below-peak-v1 · population-from-peak-v1 · sustained-decline-streak-rank-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/sustained-decline-profile.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship; streak rank compares the 29 canonical sustained-decline members only.
Reference timeAnnual source rows from 2013 through 2024; estimates through 2023, then medium-variant projection.
UnitWhole people and annual total change as a percentage of same-year population; the population-path chart indexes the literal peak to 100 while retaining exact annual counts.
Evidence statusprojected 2024 endpoint; observed/projected status is retained for every chart row.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
Tuvalu observed 2023 population pyramid. Mirrored bars compare male and female population from oldest to youngest across 85+, 80–84, 75–79, 70–74, 65–69, 60–64, 55–59, 50–54, 45–49, 40–44, 35–39, 30–34, 25–29, 20–24, 15–19, 10–14, 5–9, 0–4 age bands.
MALEFEMALE
85+
80–84
75–79
70–74
65–69
60–64
55–59
50–54
45–49
40–44
35–39
30–34
25–29
20–24
15–19
10–14
5–9
0–4
0–14 · 3.2k15–64 · 6.0k65+ · 618
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
| Year | Population | Annual change | Fertility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9,646 | −163 | 3.17 |
| 2050 | 9,781 | +65 | 2.48 |
| 2080 | 11,675 | +63 | 2.09 |
| 2100 | 12,269 | +26 | 1.95 |
Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.
AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100
Youth and older population
Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.
- First annual crossover
- Not reached by 2100
- Rule
- 65+ strictly exceeds under 18
Tuvalu annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 38.0% in 1950 to 38.0% in 2023 and 22.9% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 5.0% to 6.3% and 16.8%. First annual crossover: Not reached by 2100. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.
- 1950
- Under 18 · 38.0%65+ · 5.0%
- 2023 observed
- Under 18 · 38.0%65+ · 6.3%
- 2100 projected
- Under 18 · 22.9%65+ · 16.8%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
| Year | Evidence | Under 18 | Share | 65+ | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | observed | 1,812 | 38.0% | 237 | 5.0% |
| 1951 | observed | 1,940 | 39.4% | 230 | 4.7% |
| 1952 | observed | 2,032 | 40.2% | 222 | 4.4% |
| 1953 | observed | 2,110 | 40.8% | 222 | 4.3% |
| 1954 | observed | 2,171 | 41.2% | 222 | 4.2% |
| 1955 | observed | 2,194 | 41.2% | 221 | 4.1% |
| 1956 | observed | 2,218 | 41.2% | 222 | 4.1% |
| 1957 | observed | 2,249 | 41.3% | 224 | 4.1% |
| 1958 | observed | 2,300 | 41.8% | 225 | 4.1% |
| 1959 | observed | 2,363 | 42.5% | 226 | 4.1% |
| 1960 | observed | 2,426 | 43.4% | 225 | 4.0% |
| 1961 | observed | 2,506 | 44.4% | 228 | 4.0% |
| 1962 | observed | 2,588 | 45.4% | 230 | 4.0% |
| 1963 | observed | 2,679 | 46.6% | 229 | 4.0% |
| 1964 | observed | 2,754 | 47.9% | 232 | 4.0% |
| 1965 | observed | 2,811 | 49.2% | 234 | 4.1% |
| 1966 | observed | 2,848 | 50.1% | 235 | 4.1% |
| 1967 | observed | 2,855 | 50.5% | 239 | 4.2% |
| 1968 | observed | 2,850 | 50.6% | 241 | 4.3% |
| 1969 | observed | 2,845 | 50.5% | 243 | 4.3% |
| 1970 | observed | 2,830 | 49.9% | 244 | 4.3% |
| 1971 | observed | 2,801 | 49.3% | 252 | 4.4% |
| 1972 | observed | 2,748 | 48.3% | 258 | 4.5% |
| 1973 | observed | 2,678 | 47.1% | 260 | 4.6% |
| 1974 | observed | 2,703 | 46.5% | 265 | 4.6% |
| 1975 | observed | 2,837 | 46.4% | 272 | 4.4% |
| 1976 | observed | 2,942 | 45.9% | 275 | 4.3% |
| 1977 | observed | 3,025 | 45.3% | 282 | 4.2% |
| 1978 | observed | 3,073 | 44.1% | 286 | 4.1% |
| 1979 | observed | 3,101 | 43.2% | 293 | 4.1% |
| 1980 | observed | 3,133 | 42.5% | 298 | 4.0% |
| 1981 | observed | 3,126 | 41.5% | 312 | 4.1% |
| 1982 | observed | 3,095 | 40.4% | 322 | 4.2% |
| 1983 | observed | 3,052 | 39.2% | 340 | 4.4% |
| 1984 | observed | 3,002 | 38.0% | 360 | 4.6% |
| 1985 | observed | 3,022 | 37.5% | 380 | 4.7% |
| 1986 | observed | 3,093 | 37.6% | 403 | 4.9% |
| 1987 | observed | 3,167 | 37.9% | 418 | 5.0% |
| 1988 | observed | 3,242 | 38.1% | 441 | 5.2% |
| 1989 | observed | 3,318 | 38.3% | 465 | 5.4% |
| 1990 | observed | 3,401 | 38.7% | 485 | 5.5% |
| 1991 | observed | 3,487 | 39.0% | 506 | 5.7% |
| 1992 | observed | 3,581 | 39.6% | 520 | 5.8% |
| 1993 | observed | 3,669 | 40.2% | 538 | 5.9% |
| 1994 | observed | 3,735 | 40.6% | 551 | 6.0% |
| 1995 | observed | 3,798 | 40.9% | 570 | 6.1% |
| 1996 | observed | 3,852 | 41.2% | 574 | 6.1% |
| 1997 | observed | 3,884 | 41.3% | 587 | 6.2% |
| 1998 | observed | 3,911 | 41.4% | 587 | 6.2% |
| 1999 | observed | 3,936 | 41.5% | 577 | 6.1% |
| 2000 | observed | 3,965 | 41.6% | 568 | 6.0% |
| 2001 | observed | 3,994 | 41.6% | 561 | 5.8% |
| 2002 | observed | 4,014 | 41.7% | 547 | 5.7% |
| 2003 | observed | 4,030 | 41.6% | 542 | 5.6% |
| 2004 | observed | 4,057 | 41.3% | 556 | 5.7% |
| 2005 | observed | 4,072 | 41.0% | 571 | 5.7% |
| 2006 | observed | 4,086 | 40.6% | 580 | 5.8% |
| 2007 | observed | 4,092 | 40.2% | 582 | 5.7% |
| 2008 | observed | 4,105 | 39.7% | 586 | 5.7% |
| 2009 | observed | 4,122 | 39.4% | 579 | 5.5% |
| 2010 | observed | 4,150 | 39.1% | 577 | 5.4% |
| 2011 | observed | 4,188 | 38.8% | 577 | 5.4% |
| 2012 | observed | 4,225 | 38.7% | 580 | 5.3% |
| 2013 | observed | 4,221 | 38.4% | 591 | 5.4% |
| 2014 | observed | 4,171 | 38.0% | 593 | 5.4% |
| 2015 | observed | 4,130 | 37.6% | 597 | 5.4% |
| 2016 | observed | 4,084 | 37.4% | 592 | 5.4% |
| 2017 | observed | 4,034 | 37.1% | 586 | 5.4% |
| 2018 | observed | 3,980 | 37.0% | 594 | 5.5% |
| 2019 | observed | 3,920 | 37.1% | 595 | 5.6% |
| 2020 | observed | 3,852 | 37.0% | 593 | 5.7% |
| 2021 | observed | 3,780 | 37.1% | 588 | 5.8% |
| 2022 | observed | 3,735 | 37.4% | 586 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | observed | 3,728 | 38.0% | 618 | 6.3% |
| 2024 | projected | 3,706 | 38.4% | 640 | 6.6% |
| 2025 | projected | 3,669 | 38.6% | 666 | 7.0% |
| 2026 | projected | 3,626 | 38.7% | 700 | 7.5% |
| 2027 | projected | 3,586 | 38.7% | 729 | 7.9% |
| 2028 | projected | 3,535 | 38.6% | 751 | 8.2% |
| 2029 | projected | 3,491 | 38.4% | 769 | 8.5% |
| 2030 | projected | 3,435 | 37.9% | 803 | 8.9% |
| 2031 | projected | 3,376 | 37.5% | 831 | 9.2% |
| 2032 | projected | 3,313 | 36.9% | 862 | 9.6% |
| 2033 | projected | 3,256 | 36.2% | 900 | 10.0% |
| 2034 | projected | 3,185 | 35.5% | 929 | 10.4% |
| 2035 | projected | 3,132 | 34.9% | 950 | 10.6% |
| 2036 | projected | 3,084 | 34.3% | 967 | 10.7% |
| 2037 | projected | 3,042 | 33.7% | 962 | 10.7% |
| 2038 | projected | 3,016 | 33.4% | 967 | 10.7% |
| 2039 | projected | 3,006 | 33.0% | 968 | 10.6% |
| 2040 | projected | 2,991 | 32.7% | 969 | 10.6% |
| 2041 | projected | 2,971 | 32.4% | 961 | 10.5% |
| 2042 | projected | 2,978 | 32.2% | 950 | 10.3% |
| 2043 | projected | 2,992 | 32.1% | 941 | 10.1% |
| 2044 | projected | 3,015 | 32.2% | 928 | 9.9% |
| 2045 | projected | 3,042 | 32.2% | 914 | 9.7% |
| 2046 | projected | 3,065 | 32.2% | 892 | 9.4% |
| 2047 | projected | 3,101 | 32.4% | 876 | 9.2% |
| 2048 | projected | 3,133 | 32.5% | 868 | 9.0% |
| 2049 | projected | 3,167 | 32.6% | 853 | 8.8% |
| 2050 | projected | 3,193 | 32.6% | 849 | 8.7% |
| 2051 | projected | 3,218 | 32.7% | 850 | 8.6% |
| 2052 | projected | 3,239 | 32.7% | 855 | 8.6% |
| 2053 | projected | 3,255 | 32.6% | 847 | 8.5% |
| 2054 | projected | 3,260 | 32.5% | 852 | 8.5% |
| 2055 | projected | 3,268 | 32.4% | 862 | 8.5% |
| 2056 | projected | 3,268 | 32.2% | 867 | 8.5% |
| 2057 | projected | 3,257 | 31.9% | 885 | 8.7% |
| 2058 | projected | 3,244 | 31.6% | 892 | 8.7% |
| 2059 | projected | 3,231 | 31.2% | 907 | 8.8% |
| 2060 | projected | 3,218 | 30.9% | 921 | 8.8% |
| 2061 | projected | 3,202 | 30.6% | 931 | 8.9% |
| 2062 | projected | 3,184 | 30.2% | 943 | 8.9% |
| 2063 | projected | 3,163 | 29.8% | 953 | 9.0% |
| 2064 | projected | 3,139 | 29.4% | 961 | 9.0% |
| 2065 | projected | 3,118 | 29.1% | 963 | 9.0% |
| 2066 | projected | 3,097 | 28.7% | 962 | 8.9% |
| 2067 | projected | 3,081 | 28.4% | 971 | 8.9% |
| 2068 | projected | 3,063 | 28.1% | 972 | 8.9% |
| 2069 | projected | 3,055 | 27.8% | 974 | 8.9% |
| 2070 | projected | 3,048 | 27.6% | 989 | 8.9% |
| 2071 | projected | 3,041 | 27.3% | 1,008 | 9.1% |
| 2072 | projected | 3,038 | 27.2% | 1,020 | 9.1% |
| 2073 | projected | 3,041 | 27.0% | 1,054 | 9.4% |
| 2074 | projected | 3,043 | 26.9% | 1,088 | 9.6% |
| 2075 | projected | 3,044 | 26.7% | 1,125 | 9.9% |
| 2076 | projected | 3,045 | 26.6% | 1,164 | 10.2% |
| 2077 | projected | 3,050 | 26.5% | 1,215 | 10.6% |
| 2078 | projected | 3,053 | 26.4% | 1,271 | 11.0% |
| 2079 | projected | 3,055 | 26.3% | 1,332 | 11.5% |
| 2080 | projected | 3,056 | 26.2% | 1,398 | 12.0% |
| 2081 | projected | 3,058 | 26.1% | 1,466 | 12.5% |
| 2082 | projected | 3,055 | 26.0% | 1,531 | 13.0% |
| 2083 | projected | 3,049 | 25.8% | 1,595 | 13.5% |
| 2084 | projected | 3,046 | 25.7% | 1,656 | 14.0% |
| 2085 | projected | 3,034 | 25.5% | 1,714 | 14.4% |
| 2086 | projected | 3,026 | 25.4% | 1,759 | 14.7% |
| 2087 | projected | 3,012 | 25.2% | 1,797 | 15.0% |
| 2088 | projected | 2,997 | 25.0% | 1,848 | 15.4% |
| 2089 | projected | 2,982 | 24.8% | 1,887 | 15.7% |
| 2090 | projected | 2,968 | 24.6% | 1,912 | 15.9% |
| 2091 | projected | 2,953 | 24.4% | 1,936 | 16.0% |
| 2092 | projected | 2,935 | 24.2% | 1,955 | 16.1% |
| 2093 | projected | 2,916 | 24.0% | 1,970 | 16.2% |
| 2094 | projected | 2,897 | 23.8% | 1,982 | 16.3% |
| 2095 | projected | 2,879 | 23.6% | 1,996 | 16.4% |
| 2096 | projected | 2,858 | 23.4% | 2,010 | 16.5% |
| 2097 | projected | 2,844 | 23.3% | 2,019 | 16.5% |
| 2098 | projected | 2,831 | 23.1% | 2,029 | 16.6% |
| 2099 | projected | 2,816 | 23.0% | 2,046 | 16.7% |
| 2100 | projected | 2,805 | 22.9% | 2,057 | 16.8% |
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.