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Countries / Tokelau

Population state · Growing

Tokelau

Oceania · Polynesia · TKL · TK
SMALL POPULATION · Full population counts are shown; ratios with unstable small bases are suppressed.
Population state
Growing
current run since 2017 · projected 2024
Fertility
2.60
160 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
World population rank
235
of 237
Regional population rank
22
of 23 in Oceania
Population
2,506
Annual change
+107
small absolute movement
Natural change
+37
Migrant share
51.2%
Peak population · projected 2081 Deaths exceed births · not in this year Working-age peak · not reached Support ratio · suppressed
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED

What drives population change?

Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.

Migration contribution Adds to growth

Positive net migration adds to natural growth.

Tokelau, 2024 projected: natural change +37 people, net migration +72, WPP adjustment −2, total population change +107. Positive net migration adds to natural growth.

Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a −2-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.

SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
GROWING · STATE-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE

Growth in this series

8 source years · since 2017 Growing cohort
Current run
Since 2017
8 consecutive years · projected 2024
Latest annual gain
+107
4.27% of 2024 population
Series maximum
projected 2081
Projected from the WPP medium variant, not a forecast.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
YearPopulationAnnual changeFertility
20242,506+1072.60
20503,821+232.14
20804,418+71.90
21004,370−61.82

Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.

AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100

Youth and older population

Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.

First annual crossover
2074 · projected
Rule
65+ strictly exceeds under 18

Tokelau annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 47.2% in 1950 to 33.1% in 2023 and 19.1% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 4.4% to 7.7% and 26.8%. First annual crossover: 2074 · projected. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.

Youth and older population in Tokelau, 1950 to 2100 Tokelau annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 47.2% in 1950 to 33.1% in 2023 and 19.1% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 4.4% to 7.7% and 26.8%. First annual crossover: 2074 · projected. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024. 0% 20% 40% 60% 1950 1975 2000 2023 2050 2075 2100 ESTIMATES · THROUGH 2023 WPP MEDIUM PROJECTION UNDER 18 · 19.1% 65+ · 26.8%
1950
Under 18 · 47.2%65+ · 4.4%
2023 observed
Under 18 · 33.1%65+ · 7.7%
2100 projected
Under 18 · 19.1%65+ · 26.8%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
Tokelau under-18 and 65+ population history
YearEvidenceUnder 18Share65+Share
1950 observed 753 47.2% 70 4.4%
1951 observed 730 46.7% 76 4.9%
1952 observed 733 46.9% 76 4.9%
1953 observed 750 47.6% 72 4.6%
1954 observed 763 48.3% 67 4.2%
1955 observed 775 48.7% 68 4.3%
1956 observed 787 48.9% 72 4.5%
1957 observed 816 49.7% 76 4.6%
1958 observed 847 50.4% 75 4.5%
1959 observed 878 51.0% 76 4.4%
1960 observed 912 51.3% 76 4.3%
1961 observed 947 51.6% 80 4.4%
1962 observed 959 51.4% 87 4.7%
1963 observed 976 51.9% 90 4.8%
1964 observed 996 52.6% 96 5.1%
1965 observed 1,020 53.8% 96 5.1%
1966 observed 1,033 54.7% 89 4.7%
1967 observed 1,022 54.8% 89 4.8%
1968 observed 994 54.8% 91 5.0%
1969 observed 961 54.4% 97 5.5%
1970 observed 932 54.4% 99 5.8%
1971 observed 910 54.7% 97 5.8%
1972 observed 896 54.5% 97 5.9%
1973 observed 895 54.2% 98 5.9%
1974 observed 888 54.0% 94 5.7%
1975 observed 885 54.0% 89 5.4%
1976 observed 875 53.3% 91 5.5%
1977 observed 867 52.3% 94 5.7%
1978 observed 850 51.1% 96 5.8%
1979 observed 840 50.2% 94 5.6%
1980 observed 828 49.7% 89 5.3%
1981 observed 818 49.1% 83 5.0%
1982 observed 807 48.5% 79 4.7%
1983 observed 811 48.1% 82 4.9%
1984 observed 830 48.1% 88 5.1%
1985 observed 843 47.9% 96 5.5%
1986 observed 843 47.3% 98 5.5%
1987 observed 825 46.3% 99 5.6%
1988 observed 803 45.5% 101 5.7%
1989 observed 797 45.2% 107 6.1%
1990 observed 800 45.4% 113 6.4%
1991 observed 818 46.1% 117 6.6%
1992 observed 823 46.4% 120 6.8%
1993 observed 823 46.1% 125 7.0%
1994 observed 808 45.7% 121 6.8%
1995 observed 804 45.4% 120 6.8%
1996 observed 794 45.0% 120 6.8%
1997 observed 802 45.1% 123 6.9%
1998 observed 803 44.7% 122 6.8%
1999 observed 812 44.6% 119 6.5%
2000 observed 816 44.4% 116 6.3%
2001 observed 825 44.4% 118 6.4%
2002 observed 808 44.1% 121 6.6%
2003 observed 767 43.4% 122 6.9%
2004 observed 722 42.5% 128 7.5%
2005 observed 682 41.9% 131 8.1%
2006 observed 651 41.5% 133 8.5%
2007 observed 626 40.3% 140 9.0%
2008 observed 615 39.3% 143 9.1%
2009 observed 603 38.3% 148 9.4%
2010 observed 597 37.6% 146 9.2%
2011 observed 587 36.8% 144 9.0%
2012 observed 596 35.9% 143 8.6%
2013 observed 611 35.4% 144 8.3%
2014 observed 603 34.8% 151 8.7%
2015 observed 595 35.1% 152 9.0%
2016 observed 593 35.3% 154 9.2%
2017 observed 615 35.3% 160 9.2%
2018 observed 657 35.1% 164 8.8%
2019 observed 706 35.0% 161 8.0%
2020 observed 740 34.9% 161 7.6%
2021 observed 760 34.6% 165 7.5%
2022 observed 778 34.0% 170 7.4%
2023 observed 793 33.1% 185 7.7%
2024 projected 811 32.3% 203 8.1%
2025 projected 821 31.5% 219 8.4%
2026 projected 833 31.0% 228 8.5%
2027 projected 848 30.8% 237 8.6%
2028 projected 865 30.5% 250 8.8%
2029 projected 885 30.3% 266 9.1%
2030 projected 906 30.3% 286 9.6%
2031 projected 927 30.3% 306 10.0%
2032 projected 950 30.4% 325 10.4%
2033 projected 968 30.5% 331 10.4%
2034 projected 989 30.6% 345 10.7%
2035 projected 1,005 30.6% 359 10.9%
2036 projected 1,022 30.7% 363 10.9%
2037 projected 1,037 30.7% 366 10.8%
2038 projected 1,051 30.7% 369 10.8%
2039 projected 1,060 30.6% 371 10.7%
2040 projected 1,063 30.3% 374 10.7%
2041 projected 1,068 30.1% 379 10.7%
2042 projected 1,068 29.8% 389 10.8%
2043 projected 1,067 29.5% 395 10.9%
2044 projected 1,062 29.0% 404 11.1%
2045 projected 1,055 28.6% 416 11.3%
2046 projected 1,048 28.2% 432 11.6%
2047 projected 1,039 27.8% 439 11.7%
2048 projected 1,030 27.3% 448 11.9%
2049 projected 1,021 26.9% 461 12.1%
2050 projected 1,010 26.5% 464 12.2%
2051 projected 1,000 26.0% 479 12.5%
2052 projected 993 25.6% 496 12.8%
2053 projected 986 25.3% 501 12.9%
2054 projected 980 25.0% 510 13.0%
2055 projected 975 24.7% 522 13.2%
2056 projected 973 24.5% 542 13.6%
2057 projected 972 24.3% 558 14.0%
2058 projected 970 24.1% 578 14.4%
2059 projected 969 23.9% 603 14.9%
2060 projected 970 23.8% 626 15.4%
2061 projected 969 23.7% 648 15.9%
2062 projected 970 23.5% 684 16.6%
2063 projected 972 23.5% 713 17.2%
2064 projected 973 23.4% 741 17.8%
2065 projected 975 23.3% 764 18.3%
2066 projected 978 23.2% 792 18.8%
2067 projected 981 23.2% 819 19.3%
2068 projected 983 23.1% 843 19.8%
2069 projected 984 23.0% 865 20.2%
2070 projected 984 22.9% 885 20.6%
2071 projected 985 22.8% 909 21.0%
2072 projected 984 22.6% 930 21.4%
2073 projected 980 22.5% 956 21.9%
2074 projected 977 22.3% 981 22.4%
2075 projected 972 22.2% 992 22.6%
2076 projected 965 22.0% 1,008 22.9%
2077 projected 958 21.7% 1,019 23.1%
2078 projected 950 21.6% 1,013 23.0%
2079 projected 942 21.3% 1,024 23.2%
2080 projected 933 21.1% 1,032 23.3%
2081 projected 926 20.9% 1,034 23.4%
2082 projected 917 20.8% 1,032 23.4%
2083 projected 907 20.6% 1,032 23.4%
2084 projected 899 20.4% 1,031 23.4%
2085 projected 892 20.2% 1,038 23.5%
2086 projected 885 20.1% 1,036 23.5%
2087 projected 879 19.9% 1,042 23.6%
2088 projected 875 19.8% 1,049 23.7%
2089 projected 869 19.6% 1,065 24.1%
2090 projected 865 19.6% 1,069 24.2%
2091 projected 860 19.5% 1,075 24.4%
2092 projected 857 19.4% 1,083 24.6%
2093 projected 853 19.4% 1,094 24.8%
2094 projected 852 19.4% 1,097 25.0%
2095 projected 850 19.3% 1,116 25.4%
2096 projected 847 19.3% 1,130 25.7%
2097 projected 844 19.2% 1,140 26.0%
2098 projected 838 19.1% 1,153 26.3%
2099 projected 836 19.1% 1,163 26.6%
2100 projected 833 19.1% 1,171 26.8%
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
Download image card Compare Tokelau with…
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.