Poland
Europe · Eastern Europe · POL · PL
- Fertility
- 1.30 27 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
- World population rank
- 39 of 237
- Regional population rank
- 7 of 50 in Europe
- Population
- 38.54m
- Annual change
- −345,074 4th-largest annual loss in the record
- Natural change
- −107,006
- Migrant share
- 4.5%
Peak population · 2023 Deaths exceed births · since 2018 Working-age peak · 2010 Support ratio · 3.23 people 15–64 per person 65+
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED
What drives population change?
Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.
Migration contribution Deepens decline
Negative net migration adds to natural decline.
Poland, 2024 projected: natural change −107,006 people, net migration −238,062, WPP adjustment −6, total population change −345,074. Negative net migration adds to natural decline.
Natural change −107,006 births minus deaths
+ Net migration −238,062 net balance
≈ Total change −345,074 people per year
Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a −6-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
Poland observed 2023 population pyramid. Mirrored bars compare male and female population from oldest to youngest across 85+, 80–84, 75–79, 70–74, 65–69, 60–64, 55–59, 50–54, 45–49, 40–44, 35–39, 30–34, 25–29, 20–24, 15–19, 10–14, 5–9, 0–4 age bands.
MALEFEMALE
85+
80–84
75–79
70–74
65–69
60–64
55–59
50–54
45–49
40–44
35–39
30–34
25–29
20–24
15–19
10–14
5–9
0–4
0–14 · 5.85m15–64 · 25.33m65+ · 7.58m
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
| Year | Population | Annual change | Fertility |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 38.54m | −345,074 | 1.30 |
| 2050 | 32.81m | −250,687 | 1.40 |
| 2080 | 24.04m | −287,488 | 1.46 |
| 2100 | 19.33m | −201,153 | 1.49 |
Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.
AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100
Youth and older population
Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.
- First annual crossover
- 2021 · observed
- Rule
- 65+ strictly exceeds under 18
Poland annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 35.0% in 1950 to 18.2% in 2023 and 12.6% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 5.2% to 19.6% and 39.1%. First annual crossover: 2021 · observed. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.
- 1950
- Under 18 · 35.0%65+ · 5.2%
- 2023 observed
- Under 18 · 18.2%65+ · 19.6%
- 2100 projected
- Under 18 · 12.6%65+ · 39.1%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
| Year | Evidence | Under 18 | Share | 65+ | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | observed | 8,672,122 | 35.0% | 1,298,478 | 5.2% |
| 1951 | observed | 8,843,772 | 35.1% | 1,332,603 | 5.3% |
| 1952 | observed | 9,029,821 | 35.2% | 1,368,659 | 5.3% |
| 1953 | observed | 9,227,626 | 35.3% | 1,403,539 | 5.4% |
| 1954 | observed | 9,436,226 | 35.5% | 1,437,544 | 5.4% |
| 1955 | observed | 9,651,078 | 35.7% | 1,470,919 | 5.4% |
| 1956 | observed | 9,871,805 | 35.9% | 1,504,874 | 5.5% |
| 1957 | observed | 10,193,576 | 36.3% | 1,531,542 | 5.5% |
| 1958 | observed | 10,535,105 | 36.8% | 1,572,048 | 5.5% |
| 1959 | observed | 10,790,066 | 37.0% | 1,634,065 | 5.6% |
| 1960 | observed | 11,029,695 | 37.3% | 1,704,768 | 5.8% |
| 1961 | observed | 11,244,666 | 37.5% | 1,787,623 | 6.0% |
| 1962 | observed | 11,423,727 | 37.7% | 1,869,938 | 6.2% |
| 1963 | observed | 11,577,279 | 37.7% | 1,955,252 | 6.4% |
| 1964 | observed | 11,645,348 | 37.6% | 2,041,577 | 6.6% |
| 1965 | observed | 11,604,874 | 37.1% | 2,142,722 | 6.8% |
| 1966 | observed | 11,509,365 | 36.5% | 2,255,234 | 7.1% |
| 1967 | observed | 11,380,583 | 35.8% | 2,363,130 | 7.4% |
| 1968 | observed | 11,228,291 | 35.0% | 2,471,852 | 7.7% |
| 1969 | observed | 11,051,855 | 34.2% | 2,576,667 | 8.0% |
| 1970 | observed | 10,847,034 | 33.3% | 2,679,952 | 8.2% |
| 1971 | observed | 10,654,153 | 32.5% | 2,782,963 | 8.5% |
| 1972 | observed | 10,501,081 | 31.8% | 2,897,052 | 8.8% |
| 1973 | observed | 10,359,421 | 31.1% | 3,014,265 | 9.0% |
| 1974 | observed | 10,242,767 | 30.4% | 3,127,020 | 9.3% |
| 1975 | observed | 10,159,205 | 29.9% | 3,238,276 | 9.5% |
| 1976 | observed | 10,109,233 | 29.5% | 3,334,423 | 9.7% |
| 1977 | observed | 10,092,088 | 29.1% | 3,427,887 | 9.9% |
| 1978 | observed | 10,096,043 | 28.9% | 3,510,743 | 10.0% |
| 1979 | observed | 10,144,184 | 28.8% | 3,578,597 | 10.2% |
| 1980 | observed | 10,241,357 | 28.8% | 3,602,124 | 10.1% |
| 1981 | observed | 10,348,811 | 28.8% | 3,580,136 | 10.0% |
| 1982 | observed | 10,476,009 | 28.9% | 3,549,394 | 9.8% |
| 1983 | observed | 10,644,304 | 29.1% | 3,507,042 | 9.6% |
| 1984 | observed | 10,826,571 | 29.3% | 3,491,003 | 9.5% |
| 1985 | observed | 10,999,046 | 29.6% | 3,509,013 | 9.4% |
| 1986 | observed | 11,139,416 | 29.7% | 3,536,336 | 9.4% |
| 1987 | observed | 11,238,757 | 29.8% | 3,588,230 | 9.5% |
| 1988 | observed | 11,300,151 | 29.9% | 3,672,815 | 9.7% |
| 1989 | observed | 11,313,888 | 29.8% | 3,759,960 | 9.9% |
| 1990 | observed | 11,283,903 | 29.7% | 3,846,155 | 10.1% |
| 1991 | observed | 11,228,738 | 29.4% | 3,926,472 | 10.3% |
| 1992 | observed | 11,146,755 | 29.2% | 3,996,451 | 10.5% |
| 1993 | observed | 11,025,089 | 28.8% | 4,075,633 | 10.6% |
| 1994 | observed | 10,870,775 | 28.4% | 4,165,919 | 10.9% |
| 1995 | observed | 10,684,000 | 27.8% | 4,265,486 | 11.1% |
| 1996 | observed | 10,474,963 | 27.3% | 4,363,060 | 11.4% |
| 1997 | observed | 10,249,676 | 26.7% | 4,450,553 | 11.6% |
| 1998 | observed | 10,002,965 | 26.1% | 4,528,615 | 11.8% |
| 1999 | observed | 9,752,678 | 25.5% | 4,603,789 | 12.0% |
| 2000 | observed | 9,481,482 | 24.8% | 4,684,387 | 12.2% |
| 2001 | observed | 9,164,526 | 24.0% | 4,767,618 | 12.5% |
| 2002 | observed | 8,829,921 | 23.1% | 4,848,329 | 12.7% |
| 2003 | observed | 8,506,743 | 22.3% | 4,918,470 | 12.9% |
| 2004 | observed | 8,217,829 | 21.5% | 4,984,569 | 13.1% |
| 2005 | observed | 7,974,182 | 20.9% | 5,045,684 | 13.2% |
| 2006 | observed | 7,759,641 | 20.4% | 5,092,843 | 13.4% |
| 2007 | observed | 7,569,599 | 19.9% | 5,119,212 | 13.5% |
| 2008 | observed | 7,410,458 | 19.5% | 5,133,441 | 13.5% |
| 2009 | observed | 7,230,763 | 19.0% | 5,147,589 | 13.5% |
| 2010 | observed | 7,150,939 | 18.8% | 5,169,845 | 13.6% |
| 2011 | observed | 7,157,547 | 18.7% | 5,238,222 | 13.7% |
| 2012 | observed | 7,100,532 | 18.6% | 5,364,125 | 14.0% |
| 2013 | observed | 7,037,880 | 18.4% | 5,521,130 | 14.4% |
| 2014 | observed | 6,989,056 | 18.3% | 5,694,916 | 14.9% |
| 2015 | observed | 6,951,448 | 18.2% | 5,884,415 | 15.4% |
| 2016 | observed | 6,927,286 | 18.1% | 6,088,801 | 15.9% |
| 2017 | observed | 6,917,438 | 18.1% | 6,299,035 | 16.5% |
| 2018 | observed | 6,923,285 | 18.1% | 6,506,552 | 17.0% |
| 2019 | observed | 6,948,104 | 18.2% | 6,711,863 | 17.6% |
| 2020 | observed | 6,970,330 | 18.3% | 6,899,808 | 18.1% |
| 2021 | observed | 6,967,807 | 18.3% | 7,050,858 | 18.5% |
| 2022 | observed | 7,026,952 | 18.3% | 7,300,669 | 19.0% |
| 2023 | observed | 7,063,049 | 18.2% | 7,582,367 | 19.6% |
| 2024 | projected | 6,959,936 | 18.1% | 7,763,106 | 20.1% |
| 2025 | projected | 6,788,649 | 17.8% | 7,915,701 | 20.8% |
| 2026 | projected | 6,618,889 | 17.5% | 8,046,928 | 21.3% |
| 2027 | projected | 6,469,190 | 17.2% | 8,159,107 | 21.6% |
| 2028 | projected | 6,311,710 | 16.8% | 8,250,094 | 22.0% |
| 2029 | projected | 6,155,095 | 16.5% | 8,323,513 | 22.3% |
| 2030 | projected | 6,002,974 | 16.1% | 8,382,917 | 22.5% |
| 2031 | projected | 5,855,922 | 15.8% | 8,431,859 | 22.8% |
| 2032 | projected | 5,713,561 | 15.5% | 8,474,063 | 23.0% |
| 2033 | projected | 5,575,524 | 15.2% | 8,513,850 | 23.2% |
| 2034 | projected | 5,440,566 | 14.9% | 8,555,690 | 23.5% |
| 2035 | projected | 5,307,933 | 14.6% | 8,604,014 | 23.7% |
| 2036 | projected | 5,177,230 | 14.4% | 8,662,881 | 24.0% |
| 2037 | projected | 5,048,083 | 14.1% | 8,734,566 | 24.4% |
| 2038 | projected | 4,932,046 | 13.8% | 8,818,883 | 24.8% |
| 2039 | projected | 4,842,246 | 13.7% | 8,914,608 | 25.2% |
| 2040 | projected | 4,779,704 | 13.6% | 9,020,594 | 25.6% |
| 2041 | projected | 4,731,896 | 13.5% | 9,135,679 | 26.1% |
| 2042 | projected | 4,689,993 | 13.5% | 9,257,965 | 26.7% |
| 2043 | projected | 4,656,170 | 13.5% | 9,386,448 | 27.2% |
| 2044 | projected | 4,628,308 | 13.5% | 9,521,984 | 27.8% |
| 2045 | projected | 4,605,494 | 13.5% | 9,664,809 | 28.4% |
| 2046 | projected | 4,587,175 | 13.6% | 9,814,260 | 29.0% |
| 2047 | projected | 4,571,961 | 13.6% | 9,969,984 | 29.7% |
| 2048 | projected | 4,558,240 | 13.7% | 10,129,737 | 30.4% |
| 2049 | projected | 4,544,303 | 13.7% | 10,287,234 | 31.1% |
| 2050 | projected | 4,528,161 | 13.8% | 10,434,942 | 31.8% |
| 2051 | projected | 4,507,819 | 13.8% | 10,566,922 | 32.5% |
| 2052 | projected | 4,482,342 | 13.9% | 10,680,783 | 33.1% |
| 2053 | projected | 4,450,841 | 13.9% | 10,777,066 | 33.6% |
| 2054 | projected | 4,412,599 | 13.9% | 10,856,688 | 34.2% |
| 2055 | projected | 4,367,939 | 13.9% | 10,921,207 | 34.6% |
| 2056 | projected | 4,316,992 | 13.8% | 10,971,301 | 35.1% |
| 2057 | projected | 4,259,863 | 13.8% | 11,005,777 | 35.5% |
| 2058 | projected | 4,197,331 | 13.7% | 11,023,675 | 35.9% |
| 2059 | projected | 4,129,997 | 13.6% | 11,024,059 | 36.2% |
| 2060 | projected | 4,058,867 | 13.5% | 11,005,460 | 36.5% |
| 2061 | projected | 3,984,794 | 13.3% | 10,967,232 | 36.7% |
| 2062 | projected | 3,908,846 | 13.2% | 10,909,338 | 36.9% |
| 2063 | projected | 3,832,484 | 13.1% | 10,831,954 | 37.0% |
| 2064 | projected | 3,756,807 | 13.0% | 10,736,438 | 37.1% |
| 2065 | projected | 3,683,106 | 12.9% | 10,624,337 | 37.1% |
| 2066 | projected | 3,612,453 | 12.7% | 10,496,806 | 37.0% |
| 2067 | projected | 3,545,754 | 12.6% | 10,356,826 | 36.9% |
| 2068 | projected | 3,483,678 | 12.6% | 10,210,302 | 36.8% |
| 2069 | projected | 3,426,838 | 12.5% | 10,064,597 | 36.7% |
| 2070 | projected | 3,375,673 | 12.5% | 9,926,997 | 36.6% |
| 2071 | projected | 3,330,032 | 12.4% | 9,804,861 | 36.6% |
| 2072 | projected | 3,289,721 | 12.4% | 9,702,318 | 36.6% |
| 2073 | projected | 3,254,380 | 12.4% | 9,617,790 | 36.8% |
| 2074 | projected | 3,223,585 | 12.5% | 9,545,830 | 36.9% |
| 2075 | projected | 3,197,087 | 12.5% | 9,477,890 | 37.1% |
| 2076 | projected | 3,174,200 | 12.6% | 9,407,245 | 37.3% |
| 2077 | projected | 3,154,077 | 12.7% | 9,332,351 | 37.4% |
| 2078 | projected | 3,136,251 | 12.7% | 9,254,519 | 37.6% |
| 2079 | projected | 3,119,645 | 12.8% | 9,175,916 | 37.7% |
| 2080 | projected | 3,103,019 | 12.9% | 9,099,075 | 37.9% |
| 2081 | projected | 3,085,738 | 13.0% | 9,026,555 | 38.0% |
| 2082 | projected | 3,067,190 | 13.1% | 8,960,183 | 38.2% |
| 2083 | projected | 3,046,959 | 13.1% | 8,901,063 | 38.4% |
| 2084 | projected | 3,024,736 | 13.2% | 8,850,053 | 38.6% |
| 2085 | projected | 3,000,299 | 13.2% | 8,796,732 | 38.8% |
| 2086 | projected | 2,973,285 | 13.3% | 8,728,872 | 38.9% |
| 2087 | projected | 2,943,515 | 13.3% | 8,645,317 | 39.0% |
| 2088 | projected | 2,911,189 | 13.3% | 8,557,220 | 39.0% |
| 2089 | projected | 2,876,592 | 13.3% | 8,472,124 | 39.1% |
| 2090 | projected | 2,839,875 | 13.2% | 8,387,137 | 39.1% |
| 2091 | projected | 2,801,254 | 13.2% | 8,303,193 | 39.1% |
| 2092 | projected | 2,761,083 | 13.1% | 8,219,635 | 39.1% |
| 2093 | projected | 2,719,714 | 13.1% | 8,135,573 | 39.1% |
| 2094 | projected | 2,677,678 | 13.0% | 8,051,097 | 39.1% |
| 2095 | projected | 2,635,593 | 12.9% | 7,966,422 | 39.1% |
| 2096 | projected | 2,593,780 | 12.9% | 7,881,571 | 39.1% |
| 2097 | projected | 2,552,960 | 12.8% | 7,797,079 | 39.1% |
| 2098 | projected | 2,513,909 | 12.7% | 7,713,854 | 39.1% |
| 2099 | projected | 2,476,827 | 12.7% | 7,632,216 | 39.1% |
| 2100 | projected | 2,442,003 | 12.6% | 7,552,473 | 39.1% |
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.