headcount.earth -6,544,849

Homo sapiens; growth slowing toward a projected peak

Register Annex reserved
The Register · two-rate board

Vanishing Point

Two specimen calculations, both source-backed and not a forecast: a generational replacement-line ratio for every country or area with TFR, and a mechanical current-rate extrapolation for places already shrinking in 2024.

Generational source wpp2024 · formula tfr-over-replacement-v1 · Current-rate source wpp2024 · formula population-over-annual-loss-v1
Generational Current-rate
generational headline

32.2%

Lowest replacement-line ratio in the register: China, Macao SAR at TFR 0.68.

current-rate anchor

2044

Earliest current-rate Vanishing Point among places with negative total change: Saint Martin (French part).

Generational rate · TFR divided by the 2.1 replacement line
Place Replacement ratio TFR Population Stage Current-rate VP
China, Macao SAR 32.2% 0.68 720.3k Early Warning n/a
China, Hong Kong SAR 34.6% 0.73 7.41m Shrinkage 2228
Republic of Korea 35.0% 0.73 51.72m Shrinkage 3286
Saint Barthélemy 38.8% 0.81 11.3k Crossover n/a
China, Taiwan Province of China 41.1% 0.86 23.21m Shrinkage 2255
Puerto Rico 44.7% 0.94 3.24m Shrinkage 2910
Singapore 45.3% 0.95 5.83m The Turn n/a
Ukraine 47.0% 0.99 37.86m Crossover n/a
Holy See 47.6% 1.00 496 Crossover n/a
China 48.2% 1.01 1.42bn Shrinkage 2471
British Virgin Islands 49.9% 1.05 39.5k Early Warning n/a
Curaçao 51.0% 1.07 185.5k Crossover n/a
Andorra 51.8% 1.09 81.9k The Turn n/a
Malta 52.7% 1.11 539.6k Early Warning n/a
Chile 54.3% 1.14 19.76m Early Warning n/a
San Marino 55.1% 1.16 33.6k Shrinkage 2670
Thailand 57.3% 1.20 71.67m Shrinkage 3715
Italy 57.4% 1.21 59.34m Shrinkage 2346
Lithuania 57.7% 1.21 2.86m Shrinkage 2210
United Arab Emirates 57.8% 1.21 11.03m Early Warning n/a
Belarus 58.0% 1.22 9.06m Shrinkage 2179
Japan 58.0% 1.22 123.75m Shrinkage 2218
Spain 58.1% 1.22 47.91m Shrinkage n/a
Mauritius 58.3% 1.23 1.27m Shrinkage 2496
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 60.6% 1.27 5.6k Shrinkage 2132
Finland 61.5% 1.29 5.62m Crossover n/a
Poland 62.1% 1.30 38.54m Shrinkage 2136
Costa Rica 62.8% 1.32 5.13m Early Warning n/a
Austria 62.9% 1.32 9.12m Shrinkage 3181
Greece 63.6% 1.34 10.05m Shrinkage 2081
Albania 63.9% 1.34 2.79m Shrinkage 2165
Latvia 63.9% 1.34 1.87m Shrinkage 2144
Canada 64.0% 1.34 39.74m Early Warning n/a
Jamaica 64.3% 1.35 2.84m Shrinkage n/a
Anguilla 64.7% 1.36 14.6k The Turn n/a
Estonia 64.9% 1.36 1.36m Shrinkage 2126
Guernsey 65.0% 1.37 64.3k Crossover n/a
Bahamas 65.4% 1.37 401.3k Early Warning n/a
Jersey 65.4% 1.37 103.8k Crossover n/a
Cyprus 65.7% 1.38 1.36m Early Warning n/a
Belgium 65.9% 1.38 11.74m Crossover n/a
Saint Lucia 66.0% 1.39 179.7k Early Warning n/a
Uruguay 66.5% 1.40 3.39m Shrinkage 3923
Luxembourg 66.6% 1.40 673.0k Early Warning n/a
Bermuda 66.9% 1.41 64.6k Shrinkage 2934
Wallis and Futuna Islands 66.9% 1.41 11.3k Shrinkage 2157
Norway 67.1% 1.41 5.58m Early Warning n/a
Netherlands 68.3% 1.43 18.23m Early Warning n/a
Sweden 68.3% 1.43 10.61m Early Warning n/a
Switzerland 68.5% 1.44 8.92m Early Warning n/a
Sint Maarten (Dutch part) 68.6% 1.44 43.4k Early Warning n/a
Cuba 68.8% 1.45 10.98m Shrinkage 2288
Montserrat 68.9% 1.45 4.4k Shrinkage 2161
Bhutan 69.0% 1.45 791.5k Early Warning n/a
Germany 69.0% 1.45 84.55m Shrinkage 2319
Turks and Caicos Islands 69.1% 1.45 46.5k Early Warning n/a
Czechia 69.3% 1.46 10.74m Shrinkage 2120
Russian Federation 69.4% 1.46 144.82m Shrinkage 2212
Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba 69.7% 1.46 30.7k Early Warning n/a
North Macedonia 69.9% 1.47 1.82m Shrinkage 2226
Croatia 70.1% 1.47 3.88m Shrinkage 2162
Grenada 70.1% 1.47 117.2k Early Warning n/a
Dominica 70.5% 1.48 66.2k Shrinkage 2248
Bosnia and Herzegovina 71.0% 1.49 3.16m Shrinkage 2162
French Polynesia 71.0% 1.49 281.8k Early Warning n/a
Hungary 71.0% 1.49 9.68m Shrinkage 2380
Serbia 71.4% 1.50 6.74m Shrinkage 2176
Argentina 71.6% 1.50 45.70m Early Warning n/a
Cabo Verde 72.0% 1.51 524.9k Early Warning n/a
Kuwait 72.1% 1.51 4.93m Early Warning n/a
Portugal 72.1% 1.51 10.43m Shrinkage 2997
Denmark 72.2% 1.52 5.98m Early Warning n/a
Iceland 72.2% 1.52 393.4k Early Warning n/a
Cayman Islands 72.6% 1.52 74.5k Early Warning n/a
Saint Kitts and Nevis 72.7% 1.53 46.8k The Turn n/a
Trinidad and Tobago 73.1% 1.54 1.51m The Turn n/a
Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) 73.2% 1.54 1.68m Shrinkage 2161
Liechtenstein 73.2% 1.54 39.9k The Turn n/a
Isle of Man 73.5% 1.54 84.2k Shrinkage n/a
Malaysia 73.5% 1.54 35.56m Early Warning n/a
United Kingdom 73.9% 1.55 69.14m Early Warning n/a
Maldives 74.3% 1.56 527.8k Early Warning n/a
Slovakia 74.4% 1.56 5.51m Shrinkage 2239
Slovenia 75.0% 1.58 2.12m Shrinkage n/a
Antigua and Barbuda 75.3% 1.58 93.8k Early Warning n/a
Ireland 76.0% 1.60 5.26m Early Warning n/a
Aruba 76.5% 1.61 108.1k Crossover n/a
Brazil 76.9% 1.61 212.00m Early Warning n/a
Türkiye 77.2% 1.62 87.47m Early Warning n/a
United States of America 77.2% 1.62 345.43m Early Warning n/a
Colombia 77.8% 1.63 52.89m Early Warning n/a
France 77.9% 1.64 66.55m The Turn n/a
Australia 78.0% 1.64 26.71m Early Warning n/a
Saint Helena 78.0% 1.64 5.2k Shrinkage 2146
New Zealand 79.0% 1.66 5.21m Early Warning n/a
Azerbaijan 79.4% 1.67 10.34m Early Warning n/a
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 80.2% 1.68 91.57m Early Warning n/a
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 80.7% 1.69 3.5k The Turn n/a
Barbados 81.3% 1.71 282.5k The Turn n/a
Romania 81.5% 1.71 19.02m Shrinkage 2204
Armenia 81.7% 1.72 2.97m Shrinkage 2164
Qatar 81.8% 1.72 3.05m Early Warning n/a
Republic of Moldova 82.2% 1.73 3.03m Shrinkage 2106
Brunei Darussalam 82.4% 1.73 462.7k Early Warning n/a
Bulgaria 83.1% 1.75 6.76m Shrinkage 2189
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 83.9% 1.76 100.6k Shrinkage 2168
El Salvador 84.2% 1.77 6.34m Early Warning n/a
Dem. People's Republic of Korea 85.0% 1.78 26.50m The Turn n/a
Montenegro 85.7% 1.80 638.5k Shrinkage 2358
Georgia 85.8% 1.80 3.81m Shrinkage n/a
Bahrain 86.0% 1.80 1.61m Early Warning n/a
Ecuador 86.0% 1.81 18.14m Early Warning n/a
Tunisia 86.6% 1.82 12.28m Early Warning n/a
Palau 89.7% 1.88 17.7k Shrinkage 2793
Gibraltar 89.8% 1.89 39.3k Early Warning n/a
Mexico 90.1% 1.89 130.86m Early Warning n/a
Philippines 90.2% 1.89 115.84m Early Warning n/a
Viet Nam 90.2% 1.90 100.99m Early Warning n/a
Greenland 92.0% 1.93 55.8k Shrinkage 2666
Sri Lanka 93.0% 1.95 23.10m Early Warning n/a
India 93.4% 1.96 1.45bn Early Warning n/a
Nepal 93.4% 1.96 29.65m Shrinkage 2672
New Caledonia 93.5% 1.96 292.6k Early Warning n/a
Peru 93.6% 1.97 34.22m Early Warning n/a
Martinique 94.9% 1.99 343.2k Shrinkage 2148
Belize 96.2% 2.02 417.1k Early Warning n/a
Cook Islands 96.2% 2.02 13.7k Shrinkage 2053
Guadeloupe 98.7% 2.07 375.1k Shrinkage 2313
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 98.9% 2.08 28.41m The Turn n/a
United States Virgin Islands 99.1% 2.08 84.9k Shrinkage 2131
Myanmar 99.9% 2.10 54.50m Early Warning n/a
Monaco 100.1% 2.10 38.6k Shrinkage 2156
Panama 100.3% 2.11 4.52m The Slowing n/a
Seychelles 100.4% 2.11 130.4k The Slowing n/a
Indonesia 100.7% 2.12 283.49m The Slowing n/a
Bangladesh 101.8% 2.14 173.56m The Slowing n/a
Réunion 102.4% 2.15 878.6k The Turn n/a
Western Sahara 103.7% 2.18 590.5k The Slowing n/a
Nicaragua 105.0% 2.21 6.92m The Slowing n/a
South Africa 105.0% 2.21 64.01m The Slowing n/a
Morocco 105.1% 2.21 38.08m The Slowing n/a
Dominican Republic 105.8% 2.22 11.43m The Slowing n/a
Faroe Islands 105.9% 2.22 55.4k The Slowing n/a
Lebanon 106.0% 2.23 5.81m The Turn n/a
Suriname 106.2% 2.23 634.4k The Slowing n/a
American Samoa 108.0% 2.27 46.8k Shrinkage 2086
Fiji 108.1% 2.27 928.8k The Slowing n/a
Guatemala 108.9% 2.29 18.41m The Slowing n/a
Libya 109.4% 2.30 7.38m The Slowing n/a
Saudi Arabia 109.9% 2.31 33.96m The Slowing n/a
Northern Mariana Islands 110.7% 2.32 44.3k Shrinkage 2081
Guyana 114.0% 2.40 831.1k The Slowing n/a
Lao People's Democratic Republic 114.1% 2.40 7.77m The Slowing n/a
Paraguay 115.0% 2.42 6.93m The Slowing n/a
Honduras 117.9% 2.48 10.83m The Slowing n/a
Niue 118.5% 2.49 1.8k Crossover n/a
Oman 119.4% 2.51 5.28m The Slowing n/a
Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 120.1% 2.52 12.41m The Slowing n/a
Cambodia 121.3% 2.55 17.64m The Slowing n/a
Tokelau 123.8% 2.60 2.5k The Slowing n/a
Jordan 124.0% 2.60 11.55m The Slowing n/a
Djibouti 124.7% 2.62 1.17m The Slowing n/a
Haiti 125.0% 2.63 11.77m The Slowing n/a
Timor-Leste 125.1% 2.63 1.40m The Slowing n/a
Mongolia 125.3% 2.63 3.48m The Slowing n/a
Turkmenistan 126.7% 2.66 7.49m The Slowing n/a
Lesotho 126.9% 2.66 2.34m The Slowing n/a
Saint Martin (French part) 127.3% 2.67 26.1k Shrinkage 2044
Syrian Arab Republic 128.6% 2.70 24.67m The Slowing n/a
Botswana 128.7% 2.70 2.52m The Slowing n/a
Eswatini 129.4% 2.72 1.24m The Slowing n/a
Algeria 129.7% 2.72 46.81m The Slowing n/a
Egypt 130.2% 2.73 116.54m The Slowing n/a
Micronesia (Fed. States of) 130.6% 2.74 113.2k The Slowing n/a
Guam 130.9% 2.75 167.8k The Turn n/a
Kyrgyzstan 132.3% 2.78 7.19m The Slowing n/a
Israel 132.6% 2.79 9.39m The Slowing n/a
Marshall Islands 136.4% 2.86 37.5k Shrinkage 2054
Kazakhstan 142.1% 2.98 20.59m The Slowing n/a
Tajikistan 144.6% 3.04 10.59m The Slowing n/a
Papua New Guinea 146.3% 3.07 10.58m The Slowing n/a
Tonga 147.6% 3.10 104.2k Shrinkage 2280
Kiribati 148.8% 3.12 134.5k The Slowing n/a
Kenya 150.8% 3.17 56.43m The Slowing n/a
Tuvalu 151.1% 3.17 9.6k Shrinkage 2083
Namibia 152.9% 3.21 3.03m The Slowing n/a
Iraq 153.4% 3.22 46.04m The Slowing n/a
State of Palestine 154.8% 3.25 5.50m The Slowing n/a
Nauru 156.7% 3.29 11.9k The Slowing n/a
French Guiana 159.1% 3.34 308.5k The Slowing n/a
Ghana 159.2% 3.34 34.43m The Slowing n/a
Uzbekistan 166.0% 3.49 36.36m The Slowing n/a
Solomon Islands 167.3% 3.51 819.2k The Slowing n/a
Pakistan 168.9% 3.55 251.27m The Slowing n/a
Vanuatu 170.0% 3.57 327.8k The Slowing n/a
Gabon 171.0% 3.59 2.54m The Slowing n/a
Malawi 171.0% 3.59 21.66m The Slowing n/a
Sao Tome and Principe 171.2% 3.60 235.5k The Slowing n/a
Rwanda 173.6% 3.65 14.26m The Slowing n/a
Zimbabwe 175.0% 3.67 16.63m The Slowing n/a
Eritrea 175.2% 3.68 3.54m The Slowing n/a
Sierra Leone 176.3% 3.70 8.64m The Slowing n/a
Guinea-Bissau 178.9% 3.76 2.20m The Slowing n/a
Senegal 179.3% 3.77 18.50m The Slowing n/a
South Sudan 180.2% 3.79 11.94m The Slowing n/a
Samoa 181.0% 3.80 218.0k The Slowing n/a
Comoros 182.0% 3.82 866.6k The Slowing n/a
Liberia 184.0% 3.86 5.61m The Slowing n/a
Gambia 186.0% 3.91 2.76m The Slowing n/a
Ethiopia 186.1% 3.91 132.06m The Slowing n/a
Madagascar 186.3% 3.91 31.96m The Slowing n/a
Zambia 192.2% 4.04 21.31m The Slowing n/a
Burkina Faso 195.7% 4.11 23.55m The Slowing n/a
Congo 195.7% 4.11 6.33m The Slowing n/a
Equatorial Guinea 196.0% 4.12 1.89m The Slowing n/a
Togo 196.3% 4.12 9.52m The Slowing n/a
Guinea 196.7% 4.13 14.75m The Slowing n/a
Uganda 198.3% 4.17 50.02m The Slowing n/a
Côte d'Ivoire 201.4% 4.23 31.93m The Slowing n/a
Cameroon 202.9% 4.26 29.12m The Slowing n/a
Sudan 203.0% 4.26 50.45m The Slowing n/a
Nigeria 208.7% 4.38 232.68m The Slowing n/a
Benin 213.3% 4.48 14.46m The Slowing n/a
Yemen 214.2% 4.50 40.58m The Slowing n/a
United Republic of Tanzania 216.2% 4.54 68.56m The Slowing n/a
Mayotte 217.2% 4.56 326.5k The Slowing n/a
Mauritania 220.2% 4.63 5.17m The Slowing n/a
Mozambique 223.3% 4.69 34.63m The Slowing n/a
Afghanistan 226.7% 4.76 42.65m The Slowing n/a
Burundi 228.0% 4.79 14.05m The Slowing n/a
Angola 240.4% 5.05 37.89m The Slowing n/a
Mali 262.4% 5.51 24.48m The Slowing n/a
Niger 282.6% 5.93 27.03m The Slowing n/a
Central African Republic 283.5% 5.95 5.33m The Slowing n/a
Democratic Republic of the Congo 284.8% 5.98 109.28m The Slowing n/a
Somalia 286.3% 6.01 19.01m The Slowing n/a
Chad 287.0% 6.03 20.30m The Slowing n/a
Current-rate · population divided by absolute annual loss
Place Current-rate VP Annual change Population Stage TFR
Saint Martin (French part) 2044 -1,286 26.1k Shrinkage 2.67
Cook Islands 2053 -476 13.7k Shrinkage 2.02
Marshall Islands 2054 -1,268 37.5k Shrinkage 2.86
Greece 2081 -177,409 10.05m Shrinkage 1.34
Northern Mariana Islands 2081 -781 44.3k Shrinkage 2.32
Tuvalu 2083 -163 9.6k Shrinkage 3.17
American Samoa 2086 -752 46.8k Shrinkage 2.27
Republic of Moldova 2106 -36,911 3.03m Shrinkage 1.73
Czechia 2120 -111,390 10.74m Shrinkage 1.46
Estonia 2126 -13,360 1.36m Shrinkage 1.36
United States Virgin Islands 2131 -796 84.9k Shrinkage 2.08
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 2132 -52 5.6k Shrinkage 1.27
Poland 2136 -345,074 38.54m Shrinkage 1.30
Latvia 2144 -15,643 1.87m Shrinkage 1.34
Saint Helena 2146 -43 5.2k Shrinkage 1.64
Martinique 2148 -2,763 343.2k Shrinkage 1.99
Monaco 2156 -292 38.6k Shrinkage 2.10
Wallis and Futuna Islands 2157 -85 11.3k Shrinkage 1.41
Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) 2161 -12,262 1.68m Shrinkage 1.54
Montserrat 2161 -32 4.4k Shrinkage 1.45
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2162 -22,854 3.16m Shrinkage 1.49
Croatia 2162 -28,020 3.88m Shrinkage 1.47
Armenia 2164 -21,195 2.97m Shrinkage 1.72
Albania 2165 -19,793 2.79m Shrinkage 1.34
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2168 -700 100.6k Shrinkage 1.76
Serbia 2176 -44,236 6.74m Shrinkage 1.50
Belarus 2179 -58,404 9.06m Shrinkage 1.22
Bulgaria 2189 -41,067 6.76m Shrinkage 1.75
Romania 2204 -105,500 19.02m Shrinkage 1.71
Lithuania 2210 -15,407 2.86m Shrinkage 1.21
Russian Federation 2212 -770,316 144.82m Shrinkage 1.46
Japan 2218 -636,276 123.75m Shrinkage 1.22
North Macedonia 2226 -9,006 1.82m Shrinkage 1.47
China, Hong Kong SAR 2228 -36,337 7.41m Shrinkage 0.73
Slovakia 2239 -25,627 5.51m Shrinkage 1.56
Dominica 2248 -296 66.2k Shrinkage 1.48
China, Taiwan Province of China 2255 -100,652 23.21m Shrinkage 0.86
Tonga 2280 -407 104.2k Shrinkage 3.10
Cuba 2288 -41,620 10.98m Shrinkage 1.45
Guadeloupe 2313 -1,300 375.1k Shrinkage 2.07
Germany 2319 -286,642 84.55m Shrinkage 1.45
Italy 2346 -184,548 59.34m Shrinkage 1.21
Montenegro 2358 -1,913 638.5k Shrinkage 1.80
Hungary 2380 -27,175 9.68m Shrinkage 1.49
China 2471 -3,175,283 1.42bn Shrinkage 1.01
Mauritius 2496 -2,696 1.27m Shrinkage 1.23
Greenland 2666 -87 55.8k Shrinkage 1.93
San Marino 2670 -52 33.6k Shrinkage 1.16
Nepal 2672 -45,791 29.65m Shrinkage 1.96
Palau 2793 -23 17.7k Shrinkage 1.88
Puerto Rico 2910 -3,658 3.24m Shrinkage 0.94
Bermuda 2934 -71 64.6k Shrinkage 1.41
Portugal 2997 -10,717 10.43m Shrinkage 1.51
Austria 3181 -7,884 9.12m Shrinkage 1.32
Republic of Korea 3286 -40,992 51.72m Shrinkage 0.73
Thailand 3715 -42,394 71.67m Shrinkage 1.20
Uruguay 3923 -1,783 3.39m Shrinkage 1.40