Homo sapiens; growth slowing toward a projected peak
Oceania · Polynesia
Tokelau is recorded at 2.5k people in 2024, with total annual change of +107 under the WPP medium variant.
Tokelau observed 2023 population pyramid, grouped into five broad age bands from WPP single-age male and female arrays.
Population identity: births minus deaths plus net migration equals total change within the Record tolerance.
| Births | 51 |
|---|---|
| Deaths | -14 |
| Natural change | +37 |
| Net migration | +72 |
| Total change | +107 |
Change from 2024 to the WPP medium-variant 2100 endpoint.
| This year | +107 |
|---|---|
| Since peak | -1,916 since 2081 |
| Projected 2100 | 4.4k |
Current-rate extrapolation, not a forecast; WPP medium-variant projections remain the page baseline.
foreign-born; working-age share is not published in IMS 2024.
No reviewed Layer 2 dispatch is attached to this country record.
WPP single-age population by sex, rendered as 5-year pyramid bands from the 101-bin canonical arrays.
Tokelau 2023 pyramid: male and female single-age arrays cover 101 age bins; ages 0-14 645, ages 15-64 1.6k, ages 65+ 185.
Tokelau 2050 pyramid: male and female single-age arrays cover 101 age bins; ages 0-14 828, ages 15-64 2.5k, ages 65+ 464.
Tokelau 2100 pyramid: male and female single-age arrays cover 101 age bins; ages 0-14 692, ages 15-64 2.5k, ages 65+ 1.2k.
Stage since 2024.
First year deaths exceed births, if reached in the series.
Potential support ratio: ages 15-64 per person aged 65+. Working-age peak: 2085.
Generated 2026-06-26. Last observed year: 2023.
| Year | Population | Change | Births | Deaths | TFR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.5k | 107 | 51 | 14 | 2.60 |
| 2030 | 3.0k | 60 | 60 | 17 | 2.44 |
| 2050 | 3.8k | 23 | 54 | 27 | 2.14 |
| 2080 | 4.4k | 7 | 48 | 43 | 1.90 |
| 2100 | 4.4k | -6 | 44 | 48 | 1.82 |