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Countries / Guernsey

Population state · Growing

Guernsey

Europe · Northern Europe · GGY · GG
SMALL POPULATION · Full population counts are shown; ratios with unstable small bases are suppressed.
Population state
Growing
current run since 2017 · projected 2024
Fertility
1.37
37 of 237 with a TFR, lowest first
World population rank
208
of 237
Regional population rank
44
of 50 in Europe
Population
64,280
Annual change
+222
small absolute movement
Natural change
−80
Migrant share
—
no IMS 2024 entity match
Peak population · projected 2031 Deaths exceed births · since 2016 Working-age peak · 2010 Support ratio · 2.96 people 15–64 per person 65+
ANNUAL COMPONENTS · 2024 PROJECTED

What drives population change?

Births and deaths set natural change. Net migration can reinforce, reduce, or reverse that direction.

Migration contribution Reverses decline

Positive net migration is large enough to reverse natural decline.

Guernsey, 2024 projected: natural change −80 people, net migration +297, WPP adjustment +5, total population change +222. Positive net migration is large enough to reverse natural decline.

Exact reconciliation: WPP includes a +5-person statistical adjustment. Figures are rounded to whole people.

SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1 · migration-contribution-v1
Transformsite/src/lib/migration-contribution.ts
Raw file SHA-25698e34d9b65b53858cd08a57a566e45050b08093ad85ba5714fe6fbd78055ae6d
Measurement universeOne canonical country or area; annual natural change, net migration, WPP adjustment, and total population change use the same source row.
Reference time2024 projected annual components; estimates run through 2023.
UnitPeople per year.
Evidence status2024 WPP medium-variant projection.
GROWING · STATE-SPECIFIC EVIDENCE

Growth in this series

8 source years · since 2017 Growing cohort
Current run
Since 2017
8 consecutive years · projected 2024
Latest annual gain
+222
0.35% of 2024 population
Series maximum
projected 2031
Projected from the WPP medium variant, not a forecast.
AGE STRUCTURE · 2023
PROJECTED PATH · WPP 2024 MEDIUM VARIANT
YearPopulationAnnual changeFertility
202464,280+2221.37
205062,800−2141.45
208056,361−1851.50
210052,910−1631.53

Values after 2023 are medium-variant projections, not forecasts.

AGE BALANCE · 1950–2100

Youth and older population

Annual share of the population aged under 18 and aged 65+. The crossing shows when the older group first becomes larger in the annual source series.

First annual crossover
2015 · observed
Rule
65+ strictly exceeds under 18

Guernsey annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 26.6% in 1950 to 17.3% in 2023 and 15.1% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 12.0% to 21.3% and 33.8%. First annual crossover: 2015 · observed. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024.

Youth and older population in Guernsey, 1950 to 2100 Guernsey annual age balance from 1950 to 2100. Under-18 population moves from 26.6% in 1950 to 17.3% in 2023 and 15.1% in the 2100 projection. Population aged 65 and older moves from 12.0% to 21.3% and 33.8%. First annual crossover: 2015 · observed. Estimates run through 2023 and WPP Medium projections begin in 2024. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1950 1975 2000 2023 2050 2075 2100 ESTIMATES · THROUGH 2023 WPP MEDIUM PROJECTION UNDER 18 · 15.1% 65+ · 33.8%
1950
Under 18 · 26.6%65+ · 12.0%
2023 observed
Under 18 · 17.3%65+ · 21.3%
2100 projected
Under 18 · 15.1%65+ · 33.8%
Annual evidence · 151 source rows
Guernsey under-18 and 65+ population history
YearEvidenceUnder 18Share65+Share
1950 observed 11,964 26.6% 5,378 12.0%
1951 observed 12,424 27.1% 5,481 12.0%
1952 observed 12,513 27.1% 5,572 12.1%
1953 observed 12,502 27.1% 5,659 12.2%
1954 observed 12,480 26.9% 5,739 12.4%
1955 observed 12,444 26.8% 5,818 12.5%
1956 observed 12,415 26.7% 5,905 12.7%
1957 observed 12,439 26.7% 6,016 12.9%
1958 observed 12,548 26.8% 6,132 13.1%
1959 observed 12,741 27.1% 6,227 13.3%
1960 observed 12,987 27.5% 6,327 13.4%
1961 observed 13,205 27.8% 6,426 13.5%
1962 observed 13,377 27.9% 6,497 13.5%
1963 observed 13,567 27.9% 6,596 13.6%
1964 observed 13,683 27.8% 6,713 13.6%
1965 observed 13,738 27.5% 6,829 13.7%
1966 observed 13,813 27.3% 6,948 13.7%
1967 observed 13,921 27.1% 7,080 13.8%
1968 observed 14,048 27.0% 7,229 13.9%
1969 observed 14,212 26.9% 7,407 14.0%
1970 observed 14,444 26.9% 7,595 14.2%
1971 observed 14,647 27.0% 7,753 14.3%
1972 observed 14,732 27.1% 7,834 14.4%
1973 observed 14,769 27.2% 7,875 14.5%
1974 observed 14,755 27.2% 7,900 14.5%
1975 observed 14,647 27.0% 7,906 14.6%
1976 observed 14,462 26.7% 7,962 14.7%
1977 observed 14,233 26.3% 8,082 14.9%
1978 observed 13,981 25.8% 8,224 15.2%
1979 observed 13,713 25.4% 8,330 15.4%
1980 observed 13,436 24.9% 8,399 15.6%
1981 observed 13,169 24.4% 8,438 15.6%
1982 observed 12,934 23.8% 8,458 15.6%
1983 observed 12,742 23.3% 8,458 15.4%
1984 observed 12,591 22.8% 8,522 15.4%
1985 observed 12,443 22.3% 8,652 15.5%
1986 observed 12,349 22.0% 8,749 15.6%
1987 observed 12,328 21.7% 8,835 15.5%
1988 observed 12,292 21.4% 8,924 15.5%
1989 observed 12,260 21.1% 9,040 15.5%
1990 observed 12,258 20.8% 9,130 15.5%
1991 observed 12,292 20.7% 9,202 15.5%
1992 observed 12,339 20.7% 9,223 15.5%
1993 observed 12,386 20.8% 9,217 15.5%
1994 observed 12,418 20.9% 9,181 15.4%
1995 observed 12,444 21.0% 9,143 15.4%
1996 observed 12,477 21.0% 9,128 15.4%
1997 observed 12,537 21.1% 9,148 15.4%
1998 observed 12,570 21.0% 9,185 15.4%
1999 observed 12,562 20.9% 9,235 15.4%
2000 observed 12,531 20.8% 9,282 15.4%
2001 observed 12,501 20.7% 9,345 15.5%
2002 observed 12,471 20.6% 9,464 15.6%
2003 observed 12,451 20.5% 9,591 15.8%
2004 observed 12,418 20.4% 9,727 16.0%
2005 observed 12,334 20.3% 9,837 16.2%
2006 observed 12,237 20.1% 9,905 16.2%
2007 observed 12,125 19.8% 9,964 16.3%
2008 observed 12,007 19.6% 10,067 16.4%
2009 observed 11,886 19.4% 10,199 16.6%
2010 observed 11,775 19.1% 10,362 16.8%
2011 observed 11,687 18.9% 10,645 17.3%
2012 observed 11,626 18.8% 11,006 17.8%
2013 observed 11,586 18.7% 11,288 18.2%
2014 observed 11,541 18.6% 11,528 18.5%
2015 observed 11,452 18.4% 11,764 18.9%
2016 observed 11,341 18.2% 11,962 19.2%
2017 observed 11,280 18.1% 12,160 19.6%
2018 observed 11,229 18.0% 12,390 19.8%
2019 observed 11,191 17.8% 12,614 20.1%
2020 observed 11,168 17.7% 12,857 20.4%
2021 observed 11,130 17.5% 13,096 20.6%
2022 observed 11,088 17.4% 13,343 20.9%
2023 observed 11,046 17.3% 13,637 21.3%
2024 projected 10,996 17.1% 13,961 21.7%
2025 projected 10,930 17.0% 14,298 22.2%
2026 projected 10,831 16.8% 14,650 22.7%
2027 projected 10,714 16.6% 15,031 23.2%
2028 projected 10,603 16.4% 15,424 23.8%
2029 projected 10,475 16.2% 15,811 24.4%
2030 projected 10,313 15.9% 16,192 25.0%
2031 projected 10,162 15.7% 16,571 25.6%
2032 projected 10,046 15.5% 16,908 26.1%
2033 projected 9,945 15.3% 17,243 26.6%
2034 projected 9,845 15.2% 17,588 27.1%
2035 projected 9,759 15.1% 17,932 27.7%
2036 projected 9,704 15.0% 18,231 28.2%
2037 projected 9,694 15.0% 18,474 28.6%
2038 projected 9,705 15.0% 18,677 29.0%
2039 projected 9,711 15.1% 18,828 29.2%
2040 projected 9,704 15.1% 18,911 29.4%
2041 projected 9,692 15.1% 18,964 29.5%
2042 projected 9,671 15.1% 18,995 29.6%
2043 projected 9,648 15.1% 19,019 29.7%
2044 projected 9,640 15.1% 19,064 29.9%
2045 projected 9,619 15.1% 19,111 30.0%
2046 projected 9,608 15.1% 19,171 30.2%
2047 projected 9,589 15.1% 19,225 30.3%
2048 projected 9,573 15.1% 19,255 30.5%
2049 projected 9,549 15.2% 19,279 30.6%
2050 projected 9,518 15.2% 19,279 30.7%
2051 projected 9,490 15.2% 19,279 30.8%
2052 projected 9,457 15.2% 19,325 31.0%
2053 projected 9,418 15.2% 19,360 31.2%
2054 projected 9,382 15.2% 19,380 31.3%
2055 projected 9,340 15.1% 19,413 31.5%
2056 projected 9,295 15.1% 19,445 31.6%
2057 projected 9,252 15.1% 19,482 31.8%
2058 projected 9,202 15.1% 19,466 31.9%
2059 projected 9,151 15.1% 19,414 32.0%
2060 projected 9,091 15.0% 19,330 32.0%
2061 projected 9,047 15.0% 19,235 31.9%
2062 projected 8,990 15.0% 19,151 31.9%
2063 projected 8,944 15.0% 19,093 31.9%
2064 projected 8,897 14.9% 19,067 32.0%
2065 projected 8,848 14.9% 19,046 32.1%
2066 projected 8,804 14.9% 18,991 32.2%
2067 projected 8,766 14.9% 18,907 32.1%
2068 projected 8,730 14.9% 18,846 32.1%
2069 projected 8,702 14.9% 18,792 32.2%
2070 projected 8,676 14.9% 18,732 32.2%
2071 projected 8,663 14.9% 18,705 32.2%
2072 projected 8,641 14.9% 18,699 32.3%
2073 projected 8,629 15.0% 18,698 32.4%
2074 projected 8,614 15.0% 18,719 32.6%
2075 projected 8,602 15.0% 18,738 32.7%
2076 projected 8,596 15.1% 18,769 32.9%
2077 projected 8,580 15.1% 18,827 33.1%
2078 projected 8,573 15.1% 18,878 33.3%
2079 projected 8,554 15.1% 18,888 33.4%
2080 projected 8,544 15.2% 18,893 33.5%
2081 projected 8,520 15.2% 18,896 33.6%
2082 projected 8,504 15.2% 18,881 33.7%
2083 projected 8,479 15.2% 18,841 33.8%
2084 projected 8,453 15.2% 18,764 33.7%
2085 projected 8,430 15.2% 18,670 33.7%
2086 projected 8,394 15.2% 18,577 33.6%
2087 projected 8,370 15.2% 18,506 33.6%
2088 projected 8,339 15.2% 18,442 33.6%
2089 projected 8,308 15.2% 18,397 33.6%
2090 projected 8,274 15.2% 18,338 33.6%
2091 projected 8,245 15.2% 18,300 33.7%
2092 projected 8,214 15.1% 18,252 33.7%
2093 projected 8,184 15.1% 18,206 33.7%
2094 projected 8,149 15.1% 18,151 33.7%
2095 projected 8,122 15.1% 18,110 33.7%
2096 projected 8,089 15.1% 18,059 33.7%
2097 projected 8,057 15.1% 18,019 33.7%
2098 projected 8,029 15.1% 17,983 33.8%
2099 projected 8,001 15.1% 17,947 33.8%
2100 projected 7,976 15.1% 17,904 33.8%
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 · SINGLE-AGE POPULATION CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulaunder18-vs-65plus-annual-history-v1
Transformpipeline.derive.age_structure_history
Raw file SHA-2566de949eb0d6bf3277959da88c7591c608ad5fd995a17b4f120c11245a351dfb1 · d9c962d7e0beb731d3450cfabba8499a1449411e3c8aec3aeced06a7a2955b6e
Measurement universeall 237 WPP country and area records in the canonical Register
Reference time1950–2023 estimates; 2024–2100 WPP Medium projection
UnitPeople and percentage of same-year single-age population.
Evidence statusAnnual estimates through 2023; WPP Medium projection thereafter. No interpolation.
Download image card Compare Guernsey with…
SOURCE · UN WPP 2024 CHECKS PASSED · DETAILS⌄
Releasewpp2024
RevisionPOP/DB/WPP/Rev.2024/GEN/F01/Rev.1
Vintage2024 Revision, Online Edition
Retrieved2026-06-25T11:25:03+00:00
LicenceCC BY 3.0 IGO
Formulathousands-to-people-v1
Transformreproducible canonical pipeline
Measurement universeDe facto population: all residents in the country or area, regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Reference timePopulation is measured at 1 July 2024; annual flows cover the source year.
UnitPeople; the source workbook's thousands are converted to whole people for display.
Evidence status2024 medium-variant projection; estimates run through 2023.